Reserve-dependent capital efficiency, cross-sector competition, and mineral security considerations in mineral industry transition

Abstract

This study pinpoints three current factors that could be momentous in a possible transition to marine mining, namely reserve-dependent capital efficiency (accessibility and grade-dependent output per unit capital), cross-sector competition (competition between two separate mining sectors), and asymmetric mineral security considerations (e.g., the resource owner(s) and government(s) tied to a sector desires production for profit and security reasons). Moreover, four conceptual optimization problems are explored to specify the potential roles of said factors in a possible transition. The first problem considers a principal agent, who make decisions on behalf of resource owner(s), government(s) and producer(s), and invests and extracts to maximize the net present value of extraction from onshore and offshore reserves while facing reserve-independent capital efficiency. The second problem considers the same as the first, except here, the principal meets reserve-dependent capital efficiency. The third problem considers two principals, each representing resource owner(s), government(s), and producer(s) tied to a sector, who invest and extract to maximize the net present value of extraction from the respective reserves subject to the decisions of the other principal. Finally, the last problem considers a duopoly setting in which the marine principal values both financial gain and mineral security. The results illustrate that reserve-dependent capital efficiency, cross-sector competition, and mineral security considerations can, in different ways, drive a possible transition to marine mining. Possible counter effective factors are highlighted and discussed.