| dc.description.abstract | In 2015, Belgium confirmed their political willingness to commit to sustainable development by adopting United Nations’ 2030 Agenda and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals it undermines. While the deadline to achieve the goals is getting closer, literature suggests that Belgium is not on track to meet them. Moreover, even though the United Nations suggest using systemic and integrated methods of planification, Belgium is still lacking the institutional knowledge and tools to align themselves with these guidelines. It’s in this context that this thesis aims to fill in the methodological gap and provides an analysis of a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario to better understand the trajectory Belgium is undertaking. Using the well founded iSDG system dynamics model of the Millennium Institute, this study presents the integrated nature of such a computer simulation tool by highlighting its causal and feedback rich structure so that its capacities in the decision making process are clearly delineated. After which I describe methodologically how the model is adapted and validated for Belgium’s context. Based on the model’s calibration process, the study discusses the future work that could be performed in the model structure so the societal debate that surrounds sustainable development in Belgium is better covered by the model. Finally, the BAU scenario analysis serves as a first iteration in the process of understanding the dynamics that might unfold. In that regard, it warns about the potential negative effects of economic growth on environmental sectors and the increasing gap of social inequalities. | |
