OECD-statenes forsvarsutgifter: En kald krig mot finanskrisen?
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Denne oppgaven studerer determinantene for OECD-statenes forsvarsutgifter. Oppgaven ser spesielt på om finanskrisen fra 2008 har bidratt til en endring i effektene til determinantene. Det er tre variabler som er av spesiell interesse; økonomisk vekst, arbeidsledighet og budsjettbalanse. Sammenhengene er testet ved paneldataanalyse av 33 land for perioden 1989 - 2014. Funnene viser at økonomisk vekst og arbeidsledighet har en negativ effekt på OECD-statenes forsvarsutgifter. Budsjettbalanse har en positiv effekt.This thesis examines the determinants of military spending in the OECD-countries. Especially, it examines whether the financial crisis of 2008 has had an effect on the determinants, and the spending in total. A total of three key variables have been of particular interest; economic growth, the unemployment rate and budget balance. The thesis aims at contributing to the literature by utilizing interaction effects between the financial crisis and the three key variable, to see whether the effect of the variables has been changed. The relationships have been studied through a panel data analysis, with data for a panel of 33 OECD-countries over 26 years. The quantitative approach employs panel data regression models with fixed and random effects, with particular interest in the differences in the within and between effects of the units being studied. The analysis will show that economic growth and the unemployment rate have a negative effect on the military spending for the OECD- states. Furthermore, budget balance shows a positive effect, though the results are sensitive to the specification of the models. The differences between countries are not as significant as the within differences. The interaction effects are mostly not significant, but points to a direction that the effects of the three key variables have increased during the financial crisis. It was not possible to detect the presence of military Keynesianism.
PublisherThe University of Bergen
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