A comparative, simulation supported study on the diffusion of battery electric vehicles in Norway and Sweden
Not peer reviewed
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We are living at a point in history where global cost dynamics and specific political choices may lead to an integral transformation of the mobility system as we know it. After a century where the internal combustion engine vehicle dominated the scene, the battery electric vehicle (BEV) is making its way into the market- and in giant steps. The world’s transition to electricity and thereby a lower carbon future, depends heavily on electrifying road transportation. Norway and Sweden’s different policies represent a natural experiment: They share high ambitions towards a fossil free transport sector, but BEV policies differ. While Sweden has a technologically neutral transportation strategy and so support policies loom wide, in Norway policy efforts are concentrated on BEV support. BEV adoption rates have consequently been significantly different. The present study develops a system dynamics model to represent and quantitatively analyse the interrelatedness between policy, consumer behaviour, social dynamics, competition forces and cost and performance developments. The thesis develops a comparative study of the electric vehicle system in Norway and Sweden, looking in specific at light duty private vehicles in the time-frame 2000-2050. The study explores 6 policy options and 4 additional scenarios. It finds that neither country will achieve their 2050 zero emission goals, but rather that they will be stuck at 2/3 BEV fleet penetration rates irrespective of policies pursued. Sweden’s focus on parallel low emission horses, if continued, will lead to a growing gap with the Norwegian BEV penetration for the next decades, before the gap closes as Norway approaches the 2/3 penetration saturation. The transition to electrification of the vehicle fleet shows much stronger inertia than desired and expected in other studies; the transition seems, however, inevitable, given the current system conditions.
PublisherThe University of Bergen
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