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dc.contributor.authorLi, Fei
dc.contributor.authorOrsolini, Yvan
dc.contributor.authorKeenlyside, Noel
dc.contributor.authorShen, Mao-Lin
dc.contributor.authorCounillon, Francois
dc.contributor.authorWang, Yiguo
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-03T09:16:41Z
dc.date.available2020-07-03T09:16:41Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.identifier.citationLi F, Orsolini Y, Keenlyside N, Shen M, Counillon F, Wang Y. Impact of Snow Initialization in Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Winter Forecasts With the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. 2019;124:10033-10048eng
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1956/23307
dc.description.abstractSnow initialization has been previously investigated as a potential source of predictability atthe subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) timescale in winter and spring, through its local radiative,thermodynamical, and hydrological feedbacks. However, previous studies were conducted with low‐topmodels over short periods only. Furthermore, the potential role of the land surface‐stratosphere connectionupon the S2S predictability had remained unclear. To this end, we have carried out twin 30‐memberensembles of 2‐month (November and December) retrospective forecasts over the period 1985–2016, witheither realistic or degraded snow initialization. A high‐top version of the Norwegian Climate PredictionModel is used, based on the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, to insure improved couplingwith the stratosphere. In a composite difference of high versus low initial Eurasian snow, the surfacetemperature is strongly impacted by the presence of snow, and wave activityfluxes into the stratosphere areenhanced at a 1‐month lag, leading to a weakened polar vortex. Focusing further on 7 years characterized bya strongly negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, wefind a weak snow feedback contributing to themaintenance of the negative Arctic Oscillation. By comparing the twin forecasts, we extracted the predictiveskill increment due to realistic snow initialization. The prediction of snow itself is greatly improved, andthere is increased skill in surface temperature over snow‐covered land in thefirst 10 days, and localized skillincrements in the mid‐latitude transition regions on the southernflanks of the snow‐covered land areas, atlead times longer than 30 days.eng
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.publisherAGUeng
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial CC BY-NCeng
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/eng
dc.titleImpact of Snow Initialization in Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Winter Forecasts With the Norwegian Climate Prediction Modeleng
dc.typeJournal articleeng
dc.date.updated2019-11-08T14:55:00Z
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2019 The Author(s)eng
dc.type.versionpublishedVersioneng
bora.peerreviewedPeer reviewedeng
dc.type.documentJournal article
dc.identifier.cristinID1726551
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2019JD030903eng
dc.source.issn2169-897Xeng
dc.source.issn2169-8996eng
dc.relation.projectIDNorges forskningsråd: 244166
dc.relation.projectIDNorges forskningsråd: 229774
dc.relation.journalJournal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres


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