Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia

Abstract

The rationale of this paper is to investigate peoples’ perception of climate variability, climatechange and drought frequency and compare it with measurements of rainfall variability andanomalies in northern Ethiopia. Statistical analysis of rainfall chronologies was performed and contrastedwith qualitative data collected through a survey and questionnaires. Fieldwork studiesshowed that local authorities, farmers and pastoralists perceived regional climate to have changedduring the last few decades. Farmers explained that they have been changing their farming strategiesby shifting to more drought-resistant crops as well as to a shorter agricultural calendar. Theyattributed this to a loss of the spring rains since ‘their father’s time’ (20–30 yr ago), as well as a shortermain summer wet period. The recent 2002 drought appears to have confirmed peoples’ perceptionsthat there has been a shift in climate towards more unfavourable conditions. However, rainfallmeasurements do not show a downward trend in rainfall. Reasons for divergence between perceptionsand rainfall measurements were explored. Some can be associated with changes in peoples’need for rainfall or be linked to various environmental changes which cause reduced water availability.Others can be related to the paucity of available daily data in a dense station network whichcould better support peoples’ perceptions of change. In exploring these reasons, focus was given tothe disagreement between optimal rainfall (i.e. amount and distribution sufficient for crop or pasturegrowth) and normal rainfall (i.e. the long-term statistical mean and its variation).