Extracting statistical parameters of extreme precipitation from a NWP model
Type
Peer reviewed; Journal articlePeer reviewed
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Date
2009-11-25
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Precipitation simulations on an 8×8 km grid using
the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model MM5 are used to estimate
the M5 and Ci statistical parameters in order to support the
M5 map used for flood estimates by Icelandic engineers. It
is known a priori that especially wind anomalies occur on
a considerably smaller scale than 8 km. The simulation period
used is 1962–2005 and 73 meteorological stations have
records long enough in this period to provide a validation
data set. Of these only one station is in the central highlands,
so the highland values of the existing M5 map are estimates.
A comparison between the simulated values and values based
on station observations set shows an M5 average difference
(observed-simulated) of −5 mm/24 h with a standard deviation
of 17 mm, 3 outliers excluded. This is within expected
limits, computational and observational errors considered. A
suggested correction procedure brings these values down to
4mm and 11 mm, respectively.
Citation
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 13, 2233–2240, 2009Publisher
European Geosciences UnionCollections
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