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dc.contributor.authorAarnes, Ole Johaneng
dc.contributor.authorAbdalla, Saleheng
dc.contributor.authorBidlot, Jean-Raymondeng
dc.contributor.authorBreivik, Øyvindeng
dc.date.accessioned2015-01-26T12:29:53Z
dc.date.available2015-01-26T12:29:53Z
dc.date.issued2015-01-15eng
dc.identifier.issn0894-8755en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1956/9255
dc.description.abstractTrends in marine wind speed and significant wave height are investigated using the global reanalysis ERA-Interim over the period 1979–2012, based on monthly-mean and monthly-maximum data. Besides the traditional reanalysis, the authors include trends obtained at different forecast range, available up to 10 days ahead. Any model biases that are corrected differently over time are likely to introduce spurious trends of variable magnitude. However, at increased forecast range the model tends to relax, being less affected by assimilation. Still, there is a trade-off between removing the impact of data assimilation at longer forecast range and getting a lower level of uncertainty in the predictions at shorter forecast range. Because of the sheer amount of assimilations made in ERA-Interim, directly and indirectly affecting the data, it is difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish effects imposed by all updates. Here, special emphasis is put on the introduction of wave altimeter data in August 1991, the only type of data directly affecting the wave field. From this, it is shown that areas of higher model bias introduce quite different trends depending on forecast range, most apparent in the North Atlantic and eastern tropical Pacific. Results are compared with 23 in situ measurements, Envisat altimeter winds, and two stand-alone ECMWF operational wave model (EC-WAM) runs with and without wave altimeter assimilation. Here, the 48-h forecast is suggested to be a better candidate for trend estimates of wave height, mainly due to the step change imposed by altimeter observations. Even though wind speed seems less affected by undesirable step changes, the authors believe that the 24–48-h forecast more effectively filters out any unwanted effects.en_US
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.subjectSea/ocean surfaceeng
dc.subjectWaveseng
dc.subjectoceaniceng
dc.subjectExtreme eventseng
dc.subjectWindeng
dc.subjectReanalysis dataeng
dc.subjectTrendseng
dc.titleMarine Wind and Wave Height Trends at Different ERA-Interim Forecast Rangesen_US
dc.typePeer reviewed
dc.typeJournal article
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright [date of publication] American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org.en_US
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00470.1
dc.source.journalJournal of Climate
dc.source.4028
dc.source.142
dc.source.pagenumber819-837


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