A system dynamic approach for determination of optimal monetary policy during the war and post- war period in Ukraine

Abstract

This thesis aims to develop and test a robust model that illustrates the process of inflation targeting in Ukraine during the war. The research expands to analyze the current inflation situation, examine transmission channels, project inflation under different war-ending scenarios, and evaluate the effectiveness of measures taken. A system dynamics model explores the impact of inflation expectations and interest rates on monetary policy during wartime, considering various outcomes depending on the war's conclusion.