The Role of Third Countries in the Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions With a case study of sanctions against Russia

Abstract

This thesis examines the role of third countries on the effectiveness of sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite the implementation of sanctions by numerous economically powerful countries, Russian forces continue to engage in conflict in Ukraine, and Russian trade has shown signs of recovery. To understand the factors influencing the effectiveness of sanctions and the role of third countries in their implementation, I present a framework based on the Crisis Bargaining Model by Fearon (1995). While bargaining theory provides insights into conflict and negotiation dynamics, it proves insufficient in comprehensively understanding sanctions. The literature on sanctions effectiveness and measurement is explored, highlighting the increasing importance of third countries in influencing sanctions outcomes. This thesis focuses on the role of third countries in the case of sanctions against Russia, analyzing their impact on Russian trade patterns and circumvention of sanctions. The findings suggest that while certain sectors of the Russian economy have been affected by sanctions, trade relationships with third countries have mitigated some of the intended effects. Addressing the involvement of third countries in sanction implementation becomes crucial to enhancing the efficacy of sanctions. These effects are also hard to avoid as long as sanctioning countries do not actively stop third countries from trading with the target.