Søken etter fred. En sammenliknende studie av fredsprosessene i Somalia og Somaliland

Abstract

This thesis seeks to explain the differing outcomes of the peacebuilding processes in both Somaliland and Somalia. I conducted a comparative study of the peace processes in Somalia and Somaliland covering the period from 1991 to 2012. By using the existing theoretical framework on peacebuilding and power sharing, my aim was to find underlying factors of the differences in the outcome of these processes. Methodologically, I employed Rokkan’s approach by studying historical crucial junctures to explain structural variations and process tracing as a methodological tool to find the variables that could explain the differences in the outcomes. I applied this methodology through a historical analysis of these peace processes with an emphasis on the processes that led to the current political structures in Somalia and Somaliland. The comparative analysis in this thesis was conducted based on several dimensions of the peace processes and the drafting of the constitutions. Through my analysis, I have found several factors that explains the differences. The findings suggest that the differences in outcomes can be traced back to five causal factors: a) Anchoring the peace process and the role of external actors, b) the quality of leadership, c) power-sharing formula, d) peacebuilding approaches and e) the degree of corruption. While there is an extensive research on the impact of the other factors, there is a lack of focus on the implications of the quality of leadership on the outcomes of peace processes in post conflict societies.