• Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models 

      Shu, Qi; Wang, Qiang; Årthun, Marius; Wang, Shizhu; Song, Zhenya; Zhang, Min; Qiao, Fangli (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      Arctic near-surface air temperature warms much faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. The change of the underlying Arctic Ocean could influence climate through its interaction with sea ...
    • The Atlantic inflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge in global climate models (CMIP5) 

      Heuzé, Céline; Årthun, Marius (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019-05-21)
      Oceanic heat transport from the North Atlantic to the Arctic through the Nordic Seas is a key component of the climate system that has to be modelled accurately in order to predict, for example, future Arctic sea ice changes ...
    • Barents Sea ice cover reflects Atlantic inflow 

      Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Smedsrud, Lars Henrik; Skagseth, Øystein (Journal article, 2011)
      The recent Arctic winter sea-ice retreat is most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Using available observations of the Atlantic inflow to the Barents Sea and results from a regional ice-ocean model we assess the role of ...
    • Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. 

      Årthun, Marius; Bogstad, Bjarte; Daewel, Ute; Keenlyside, Noel; Sandø, Anne Britt; Schrum, Corinna; Ottersen, Geir (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2018-10-24)
      Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is ...
    • Deconstructing Future AMOC Decline at 26.5°N 

      Asbjørnsen, Helene; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is frequently used to diagnose the state of the North Atlantic circulation, but as an integrated quantity the AMOC strength does not necessarily mirror changes in the ...
    • Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea 

      Årthun, Marius; Ingvaldsen, Randi; Smedsrud, Lars Henrik; Schrum, Corinna (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2011)
      Dense water masses from Arctic shelf seas are an important part of the Arctic thermohaline system. We present previously unpublished observations from shallow banks in the Barents Sea, which reveal large interannual ...
    • Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes 

      Dörr, Jakob Simon; Bonan, David; Årthun, Marius; Svendsen, Lea; Wills, Robert C.J. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      The Arctic sea-ice cover is strongly influenced by internal variability on decadal timescales, affecting both short-term trends and the timing of the first ice-free summer. Several mechanisms of variability have been ...
    • Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation 

      Årthun, Marius; Asbjørnsen, Helene; Chafik, Léon; Johnson, Helen L.; Våge, Kjetil (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      The overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas involves the transformation of warm Atlantic waters into cold, dense overflows. These overflow waters return to the North Atlantic and form the headwaters to the deep limb of ...
    • Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study 

      Passos, Leilane G.; Langehaug, Helene R.; Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Bethke, Ingo; Kimmritz, Madlen (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      The skilful prediction of climatic conditions on a forecast horizon of months to decades into the future remains a main scientific challenge of large societal benefit. Here we assess the hindcast skill of the Norwegian ...
    • Klimavarsling - en arv etter Nansen. Pionerene Fridtjof Nansen og Bjørn Helland-Hansen fikk rett: Endringer i hav og klima kan varsles. 

      Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Onarheim, Ingrid Husøy (Årbok for Universitetsmuseet i Bergen;24, Chapter, 2019-12)
      Vi nordmenn er kjent for å være over gjennomsnittlig opptatt av været, og værvarselet styrer ofte våre aktiviteter og helge- planer. Industri og næringsliv tar også avgjørelser basert på informasjon om fremtidens vær og ...
    • Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly 

      Årthun, Marius; Wills, Robert C.J.; Johnson, Helen L.; Chafik, Leon; Langehaug, Helene R. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Decadal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations in the North Atlantic Ocean influence climate over adjacent land areas and are a major source of skill in climate predictions. However, the mechanisms underlying decadal ...
    • Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Anomalies in the Norwegian Sea 

      Asbjørnsen, Helene; Årthun, Marius; Skagseth, Øystein; Eldevik, Tor (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019-04)
      Ocean heat content in the Norwegian Sea exhibits pronounced variability on interannual to decadal time scales. These ocean heat anomalies are known to influence Arctic sea ice extent, marine ecosystems, and continental ...
    • Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming arctic 

      Dörr, Jakob Simon; Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Madonna, Erica (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The Arctic winter sea ice cover is in retreat overlaid by large internal variability. Changes to sea ice are driven by exchange of heat, momentum, and freshwater within and between the ocean and the atmosphere. Using a ...
    • Mechanisms underlying recent Arctic atlantification 

      Asbjørnsen, Helene; Årthun, Marius; Skagseth, Øystein; Eldevik, Tor (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020-06-20)
      Recent warming and reduced sea ice concentrations in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean are the main signatures of ongoing Arctic “Atlantification.” The mechanisms driving the warming trends are nevertheless still ...
    • Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice cover over the last century 

      Smedsrud, Lars Henrik; Muilwijk, Morven; Eldevik, Tor; Årthun, Marius; Brakstad, Ailin; Madonna, Erica; Lauvset, Siv Kari; Spensberger, Clemens; Born, Andreas; Drange, Helge; Jeansson, Emil; Li, Camille; Olsen, Are; Skagseth, Øystein; Slater, Donald; Straneo, Fiammetta; Våge, Kjetil (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Poleward ocean heat transport is a key process in the earth system. We detail and review the northward Atlantic Water (AW) flow, Arctic Ocean heat transport, and heat loss to the atmosphere since 1900 in relation to sea ...
    • On the seasonal signal of the Filchner overflow, Weddell Sea, Antarctica 

      Darelius, Elin Maria K.; Strand, Kjersti Opstad; Østerhus, Svein; Gammelsrød, Tor; Årthun, Marius; Fer, Ilker (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2014)
      The cold ice shelf water (ISW) that formed below the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in the southwestern Weddell Sea, Antarctica, escapes the ice shelf cavity through the Filchner Depression and spills over its sill at a rate of ...
    • Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance 

      Fransner, Sara Filippa Krusmynta; Olsen, Are; Årthun, Marius; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Tjiputra, Jerry; Samuelsen, Annette; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      The Barents Sea is a highly biologically productive Arctic shelf sea with several commercially important fish stocks. Interannual-to-decadal predictions of its ecosystem would therefore be valuable for marine resource ...
    • Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway 

      Langehaug, Helene R.; Ortega, Pablo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Matei, Daniela; Maroon, Elizabeth A.; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Mignot, Juliette; Wang, Yiguo; Swingedouw, Didier; Bethke, Ingo; Yang, Shuting; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Nicoli, D.; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We ...
    • Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea 

      Rieke, Ole; Årthun, Marius; Dörr, Jakob Simon (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, the anthropogenic signal of the sea ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of ...
    • The Role of Atlantic Heat Transport in Future Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss 

      Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Smedsrud, Lars H. (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019-05-14)
      During recent decades Arctic sea ice variability and retreat during winter have largely been a result of variable ocean heat transport (OHT). Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble simulation ...