• Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi 

      Graff, Lise Seland; Iversen, Trond; Bethke, Ingo; Debernard, Jens Boldingh; Seland, Øyvind; Bentsen, Mats; Kirkevåg, Alf; Li, Camille; Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)
      Differences between a 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warmer climate than 1850 pre-industrial conditions are investigated using a suite of uncoupled (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project; AMIP), fully coupled, and slab-ocean experiments ...
    • Can we use ice sheet reconstructions to constrain meltwater for deglacial simulations? 

      Bethke, Ingo; Li, Camille; Nisancioglu, Kerim Hestnes (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2012)
      Freshwater pulses from melting ice sheets are thought to be important for driving deglacial climate variability. This study investigates challenges in simulating and understanding deglacial climate evolution within this ...
    • Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model 

      Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi Dejene; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2018)
      We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to ...
    • Equilibrium simulations of Marine Isotope Stage 3 climate 

      Guo, Chuncheng; Nisancioglu, Kerim Hestnes; Bentsen, Mats; Bethke, Ingo; Zhang, Zhongshi (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019-06-26)
      An equilibrium simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) climate with boundary conditions characteristic of Greenland Interstadial 8 (GI-8; 38 kyr BP) is carried out with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). A ...
    • Evaluating the biological pump efficiency of the Last Glacial Maximum ocean using δ13C 

      Morée, Anne; Schwinger, Jörg; Ninnemann, Ulysses S; Jeltsch-Thommes, Aurich; Bethke, Ingo; Heinze, Christoph (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Although both physical and biological marine changes are required to explain the 100 ppm lower atmospheric pCO2 of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21 ka) as compared to preindustrial (PI) times, their exact contributions ...
    • Impact of ocean and sea ice initialisation on seasonal prediction skill in the Arctic 

      Kimmritz, Madlen; Counillon, Francois; Smedsrud, Lars H.; Bethke, Ingo; Keenlyside, Noel; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Wang, Yiguo (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)
      There is a growing demand for skillful prediction systems in the Arctic. Using the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) that combines the fully-coupled Norwegian Earth System Model and the Ensemble Kalman filter, ...
    • NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP 

      Bethke, Ingo; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Kimmritz, Madlen; Fransner, Filippa; Samuelsen, Annette; Langehaug, Helene R.; Svendsen, Lea; Chiu, Ping-Gin; Passos, Leilane G.; Bentsen, Mats; Guo, Chuncheng; Gupta, Alok Kumar; Tjiputra, Jerry; Kirkevåg, Alf; Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo; Seland, Øyvind; Vågane, Julie Solsvik; Fan, Yuanchao; Eldevik, Tor (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) ...
    • Ocean Biogeochemical Predictions—Initialization and Limits of Predictability 

      Fransner, Filippa; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Tjiputra, Jerry; Samuelsen, Annette; Nummelin, Aleksi; Olsen, Are (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      Predictions of ocean biogeochemistry, such as primary productivity and CO2 uptake, would help to understand the changing marine environment and the global climate. There is an emerging number of studies where initialization ...
    • Ocean biogeochemistry in the Norwegian Earth System Model version 2 (NorESM2) 

      Tjiputra, Jerry; Schwinger, Jörg; Bentsen, Mats; Morée, Anne; Gao, Shuang; Bethke, Ingo; Heinze, Christoph; Goris, Nadine; Gupta, Alok Kumar; He, Yan-Chun; Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo; Seland, Øyvind; Schulz, Michael (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      The ocean carbon cycle is a key player in the climate system through its role in regulating the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and other processes that alter the Earth's radiative balance. In the second version ...
    • On the recent time history and forcing of the inflow of Atlantic Water to the Arctic Mediterranean 

      Nilsen, Jan Even Øie; Hátún, Hjalmar; Sandø, Anne Britt; Bethke, Ingo; Laurantin, Olivier; Gao, Yongqi; Drange, Helge; Furevik, Tore (Extended Abstract for The ACIA International Scientific Symposium on Climate Change in the Arctic;, Conference object, 2004)
    • Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations 

      Seland, Øyvind; Bentsen, Mats; Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo; Toniazzo, Thomas; Gjermundsen, Ada; Graff, Lise Seland; Debernard, Jens Boldingh; Gupta, Alok Kumar; He, Yan-Chun; Kirkevåg, Alf; Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry; Aas, Kjetil Schanke; Bethke, Ingo; Fan, Yuanchao; Griesfeller, Jan; Grini, Alf; Guo, Chuncheng; Ilicak, Mehmet; Karset, Inger Helene H.; Landgren, Oskar Andreas; Liakka, Johan; Moseid, Kine Onsum; Nummelin, Aleksi; Spensberger, Clemens; Tang, Hui; Zhang, Zhongshi; Heinze, Christoph; Iversen, Trond; Schulz, Michael (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020-12)
      The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. NorESM2 is based on the second version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) and shares with CESM2 the computer ...
    • Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century 

      Svendsen, Lea; Keenlyside, Noel; Muilwijk, Morven; Bethke, Ingo; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Gao, Yongqi (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Instrumental records suggest multidecadal variability in Arctic surface temperature throughout the twentieth century. This variability is caused by a combination of external forcing and internal variability, but their ...
    • Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic 

      Svendsen, Lea; Keenlyside, Noel; Bethke, Ingo; Gao, Yongqi; Omrani, Nour-Eddine (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2018)
      Arctic surface temperature warmed more than twice as fast as global temperature during the early twentieth century, similar to that during the recent global warming. This Arctic warming has been attributed to both external ...
    • Potential Influences of Volcanic Eruptions on Future Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes 

      Man, Wenmin; Zuo, Meng; Zhou, Tianjun; Fasullo, John; Bethke, Ingo; Chen, Xiaolong; Zou, Liwei; Wu, Bo (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The global monsoon system is of exceptional socioeconomic importance owing to its impacts on two-thirds of the globe’s population. Major volcanic eruptions strongly influence global land monsoon (GLM) precipitation change. ...
    • Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway 

      Langehaug, Helene R.; Ortega, Pablo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Matei, Daniela; Maroon, Elizabeth A.; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Mignot, Juliette; Wang, Yiguo; Swingedouw, Didier; Bethke, Ingo; Yang, Shuting; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Nicoli, D.; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We ...
    • Relating model bias and prediction skill in the equatorial Atlantic 

      Counillon, Francois; Keenlyside, Noel; Toniazzo, Thomas; Koseki, Shunya; Demissie, Teferi Dejene; Bethke, Ingo; Wang, Yiguo (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      We investigate the impact of large climatological biases in the tropical Atlantic on reanalysis and seasonal prediction performance using the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) in a standard and an anomaly coupled ...
    • Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble kalman filter and the Norwegian earth System Model: A twin experiment 

      Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Keenlyside, Noel; Bentsen, Mats; Bertino, Laurent; Zheng, Fei (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2014-03-10)
      Here, we firstly demonstrate the potential of an advanced flow dependent data assimilation method for performing seasonal-to-decadal prediction and secondly, reassess the use of sea surface temperature (SST) for initialisation ...
    • Simulated Mass, Heat and Freshwater Budgets of the Artic Mediterranean - Present and Future 

      Bethke, Ingo (Master thesis, 2004)
      The majority of recent climate forecast studies suggest a dramatic thinning of the Arctic multi year ice and eventually the disappearing of all summer ice within just a few decades. Moreover, in the maritime Arctic a large ...
    • Towards a more saline North Atlantic and a fresher Arctic under global warming 

      Bethke, Ingo; Furevik, Tore; Drange, Helge (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2006-11-14)
      Most atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations predict enhanced atmospheric moisture transports to the high northern latitudes. Together with melting of Arctic ...
    • WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25 

      Hermanson, Leon; Smith, Doug; Seabrook, Melissa; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne; Lapin, Vladimir; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Merryfield, William J.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Athanasiadis, Panos; Nicoli, Dario; Gualdi, Silvio; Dunstone, Nick; Eade, Rosie; Scaife, Adam; Collier, Mark; O'Kane, Terence; Kitsios, Vassili; Sandery, Paul; Pankatz, Klaus; Früh, Barbara; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Kataoka, Takahito; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Ishii, Masayoshi; Imada, Yukiko; Kruschke, Tim; Koenigk, Torben; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Liping; Delworth, Tom; Yang, Xiaosong; Zeng, Fanrong; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Bethke, Ingo; Lean, Judith; Luterbacher, Jürg; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential ...