• Benefit of vertical localization for sea surface temperature assimilation in isopycnal coordinate model 

      Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Barthelemy, Sebastien Jean-Claude; Barth, Alexander (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022-12-15)
      Sea surface temperature (SST) observations are a critical data set for long-term climate reconstruction. However, their assimilation with an ensemble-based data assimilation method can degrade performance in the ocean ...
    • Enhancing Seasonal Forecast Skills by Optimally Weighting the Ensemble from Fresh Data 

      Brajard, Julien; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Wang, Yiguo; Kimmritz, Madlen (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      Dynamical climate predictions are produced by assimilating observations and running ensemble simulations of Earth system models. This process is time consuming and by the time the forecast is delivered, new observations ...
    • Estimation of Ocean Biogeochemical Parameters in an Earth System Model Using the Dual One Step Ahead Smoother: A Twin Experiment 

      Singh, Tarkeshwar; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Tjiputra, Jerry; Wang, Yiguo; Gharamti, Mohamad El (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      Ocean biogeochemical (BGC) models utilise a large number of poorly-constrained global parameters to mimic unresolved processes and reproduce the observed complex spatio-temporal patterns. Large model errors stem primarily ...
    • Framework for an Ocean-Connected Supermodel of the Earth System 

      Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Wang, Shuo; Devilliers, Marion; Gupta, Alok Kumar; Koseki, Shunya; Shen, Mao-Lin (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      A supermodel connects different models interactively so that their systematic errors compensate and achieve a model with superior performance. It differs from the standard non-interactive multi-model ensembles (NI), which ...
    • NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP 

      Bethke, Ingo; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Kimmritz, Madlen; Fransner, Filippa; Samuelsen, Annette; Langehaug, Helene R.; Svendsen, Lea; Chiu, Ping-Gin; Passos, Leilane G.; Bentsen, Mats; Guo, Chuncheng; Gupta, Alok Kumar; Tjiputra, Jerry; Kirkevåg, Alf; Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo; Seland, Øyvind; Vågane, Julie Solsvik; Fan, Yuanchao; Eldevik, Tor (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) ...
    • On dynamical downscaling of ENSO-induced oceanic anomalies off Baja California Peninsula, Mexico: role of the air-sea heat flux 

      Rivas Camargo, David Alberto; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is responsible for important physical and biogeochemical anomalies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The event of 1997-98 has been one of the most intense in the last ...
    • Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance 

      Fransner, Sara Filippa Krusmynta; Olsen, Are; Årthun, Marius; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Tjiputra, Jerry; Samuelsen, Annette; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      The Barents Sea is a highly biologically productive Arctic shelf sea with several commercially important fish stocks. Interannual-to-decadal predictions of its ecosystem would therefore be valuable for marine resource ...
    • Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway 

      Langehaug, Helene R.; Ortega, Pablo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Matei, Daniela; Maroon, Elizabeth A.; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Mignot, Juliette; Wang, Yiguo; Swingedouw, Didier; Bethke, Ingo; Yang, Shuting; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Nicoli, D.; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We ...
    • Super-resolution data assimilation 

      Barthelemy, Sebastien Jean-Claude; Brajard, Julien; Bertino, Laurent; Counillon, Francois Stephane (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      Increasing model resolution can improve the performance of a data assimilation system because it reduces model error, the system can more optimally use high-resolution observations, and with an ensemble data assimilation ...
    • WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25 

      Hermanson, Leon; Smith, Doug; Seabrook, Melissa; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne; Lapin, Vladimir; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Merryfield, William J.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Athanasiadis, Panos; Nicoli, Dario; Gualdi, Silvio; Dunstone, Nick; Eade, Rosie; Scaife, Adam; Collier, Mark; O'Kane, Terence; Kitsios, Vassili; Sandery, Paul; Pankatz, Klaus; Früh, Barbara; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Kataoka, Takahito; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Ishii, Masayoshi; Imada, Yukiko; Kruschke, Tim; Koenigk, Torben; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Liping; Delworth, Tom; Yang, Xiaosong; Zeng, Fanrong; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Bethke, Ingo; Lean, Judith; Luterbacher, Jürg; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential ...