• Impact of ocean and sea ice initialisation on seasonal prediction skill in the Arctic 

      Kimmritz, Madlen; Counillon, Francois; Smedsrud, Lars H.; Bethke, Ingo; Keenlyside, Noel; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Wang, Yiguo (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)
      There is a growing demand for skillful prediction systems in the Arctic. Using the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) that combines the fully-coupled Norwegian Earth System Model and the Ensemble Kalman filter, ...
    • Impact of Snow Initialization in Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Winter Forecasts With the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model 

      Li, Fei; Orsolini, Yvan; Keenlyside, Noel; Shen, Mao-Lin; Counillon, Francois; Wang, Yiguo (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)
      Snow initialization has been previously investigated as a potential source of predictability atthe subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) timescale in winter and spring, through its local radiative,thermodynamical, and hydrological ...
    • Ocean Biogeochemical Predictions—Initialization and Limits of Predictability 

      Fransner, Filippa; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Tjiputra, Jerry; Samuelsen, Annette; Nummelin, Aleksi; Olsen, Are (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      Predictions of ocean biogeochemistry, such as primary productivity and CO2 uptake, would help to understand the changing marine environment and the global climate. There is an emerging number of studies where initialization ...
    • Relating model bias and prediction skill in the equatorial Atlantic 

      Counillon, Francois; Keenlyside, Noel; Toniazzo, Thomas; Koseki, Shunya; Demissie, Teferi Dejene; Bethke, Ingo; Wang, Yiguo (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      We investigate the impact of large climatological biases in the tropical Atlantic on reanalysis and seasonal prediction performance using the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) in a standard and an anomaly coupled ...
    • Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF 

      Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois; Keenlyside, Noel; Svendsen, Lea; Gleixner, Stephanie; Kimmritz, Madlen; Dai, Panxi; Gao, Yongqi (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019-07-23)
      This study demonstrates that assimilating SST with an advanced data assimilation method yields prediction skill level with the best state-of-the-art systems. We employ the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM)—a ...
    • Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble kalman filter and the Norwegian earth System Model: A twin experiment 

      Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Keenlyside, Noel; Bentsen, Mats; Bertino, Laurent; Zheng, Fei (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2014-03-10)
      Here, we firstly demonstrate the potential of an advanced flow dependent data assimilation method for performing seasonal-to-decadal prediction and secondly, reassess the use of sea surface temperature (SST) for initialisation ...