Browsing Bergen Open Research Archive by Author "Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian"
Now showing items 1-20 of 34
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Advancing annual global mean surface temperature prediction to 2 months lead using physics based strategy
Li, Ke-Xin; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang; Yu, Jin-Yi; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)Interannual global mean surface temperature (GMST) forecast provides critical insights into the economic and societal implications of climate variability. The pronounced GMST elevation in 2023–2024 indicates that the Earth ... -
Arctic Sea Ice Variations in the First Half of the 20th Century: A New Reconstruction Based on Hydrometeorological Data
Semenov, Vladimir A.; Aldonina, Tatiana A.; Li, Fei; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Wang, Lin (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)The shrinking Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) in recent decades is a striking manifestation of the ongoing climate change. Variations of the Arctic sea ice have been continuously observed by satellites since 1979, relatively ... -
Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections
Cheung, Ho-Nam; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Koenigk, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Xu, Zhiqing; Gao, Yongqi; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Qiao, Shaobo; Zhou, Wen (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)We investigate the uncertainty (i.e., inter-model spread) in future projections of the boreal winter climate, based on the forced response of ten models from the CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty in the ... -
Assessing the tropical Atlantic biogeochemical processes in the Norwegian Earth System Model
Koseki, Shunya; Crespo, Lander Rodriguez; Tjiputra, Jerry; Fransner, Sara Filippa Krusmynta; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Rivas, David (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)State-of-the-art Earth system models exhibit large biases in their representation of the tropical Atlantic hydrography, with potential large impacts on both climate and ocean biogeochemistry projections. This study ... -
Boosting effect of strong western pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the decay of El Niño events
Wu, Jia; Fan, Hanjie; Lin, Shuheng; Zhong, Wenxiu; He, Shan; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Yang, Song (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)The Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode is believed to favor the decay of El Niño via modulating the zonal wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific, while the contribution of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode to the ... -
Characterizing Atlantic interhemispheric teleconnection established by South American monsoon in austral summer
Tseng, Wan-Ling; Lee, Yu-Chi; Wang, Yi-Chi; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)This study aims to characterize the interhemispheric teleconnection pattern, which is established by the South America (SA) summer monsoon over the Atlantic Ocean during January and February, and referred it as the Atlantic ... -
Climate change impacts on small pelagic fish distribution in Northwest Africa: trends, shifts, and risk for food security
Sarre, Abdoulaye; Demarcq, Hervé; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Krakstad, Jens-Otto; El Ayoubi, Salaheddine; Jeyid, Ahmed Mohamed; Faye, Saliou; Mbaye, Adama; Sidibeh, Momodou; Brehmer, Patrice (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)Climate change is recognised to lead to spatial shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by altering their environmental optima. Fish supply along the Northwest African coast is significant at both ... -
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection
Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Matthes, Katja; Boljka, Lina; Zanchettin, Davide; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Lubis, Sandro W. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends ... -
The Crucial Role of the Subpolar North Atlantic for Skillful Decadal Climate Predictions
Drews, Annika; Schmith, Torben; Tian, Tian; Wang, Yiguo; Devilliers, Marion; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Yang, Shuting; Olsen, Steffen M. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)We investigate the role of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) for downstream predictability, using two decadal climate prediction systems. We use the subpolar extreme cold and fresh anomaly event developing in winter ... -
Disentangling the impact of Atlantic Niño on sea-air CO2 flux
Koseki, Shunya; Tjiputra, Jerry; Fransner, Sara Filippa Krusmynta; Crespo, Lander Rodriguez; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)Atlantic Niño is a major tropical interannual climate variability mode of the sea surface temperature (SST) that occurs during boreal summer and shares many similarities with the tropical Pacific El Niño. Although the ... -
ENSO teleconnections in terms of non-NAO and NAO atmospheric variability
King, Martin Peter; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Li, Camille (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)The validity of the long-held understanding or assumption that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a remote influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the January–February–March (JFM) months has been questioned ... -
Framework for an Ocean-Connected Supermodel of the Earth System
Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Wang, Shuo; Devilliers, Marion; Gupta, Alok Kumar; Koseki, Shunya; Shen, Mao-Lin (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)A supermodel connects different models interactively so that their systematic errors compensate and achieve a model with superior performance. It differs from the standard non-interactive multi-model ensembles (NI), which ... -
Identifying quasi-periodic variability using multivariate empirical mode decomposition: a case of the tropical Pacific
Boljka, Lina; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)A variety of statistical tools have been used in climate science to gain a better understanding of the climate system's variability on various temporal and spatial scales. However, these tools are mostly linear, stationary, ... -
Impact of the Agulhas Current on Southern Africa Precipitation: A Modeling Study
Nkwinkwa, Arielle Stela Imbol; Rouault, Mathieu; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Koseki, Shunya (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)The Agulhas Current (AC) creates a sharp temperature gradient with the surrounding ocean, leading to a large turbulent flux of moisture from ocean to atmosphere. We use two simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting ... -
Intercomparison of initialization methods for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions with the NorCPM
Garcia Oliva, Lilian Carolina; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Bethke, Ingo; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)Initialization is essential for accurate seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) climate predictions. The initialization schemes used differ on the component initialized, the Data Assimilation method, or the technique. We compare five ... -
Long-term climatological trends driving the recent warming along the Angolan and Namibian coasts
Tomety, Folly Serge; Illig, Serena; Ostrowski, Marek; Awo, Founi Mesmin; Bachèlery, Marie-Lou; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Rouault, Mathieu (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)The coastal regions off Angola and Namibia are renowned for their highly productive marine ecosystems in the southeast Atlantic. In recent decades, these regions have undergone significant long-term changes. In this study, ... -
Making Ecosystem Modeling Operational–A Novel Distributed Execution Framework to Systematically Explore Ecological Responses to Divergent Climate Trajectories
Steenbeek, Jeroen; Ortega, Pablo; Bernardello, Raffaele; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Exarchou, Eleftheria; Fuster-Alonso, Alba; Heneghan, Ryan; Julià Melis, Laura; Pennino, Maria Grazia; Rivas Camargo, David Alberto; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System Models (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and to analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for marine ecosystems under ... -
Mitigating climate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic by increasing model resolution: SST gradients and their relation to blocking and the jet
Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Schiemann, Reinhard; Baker, Alexander J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Haarsma, Rein; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Roberts, Chris; Novak, Lenka; Gualdi, Silvio (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)Starting to resolve the oceanic mesoscale in climate models is a step change in model fidelity. This study examines how certain obstinate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic respond to increasing resolution (from 1° ... -
Multidecadal variability of ENSO in a recharge oscillator framework
Rodriguez Crespo, Lander; Rodríguez-Fonseca, María Belén; Polo, Irene; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Dommenget, Dietmar (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)We use a conceptual recharge oscillator model to identify changes in El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) statistics and dynamics during the observational record. The variability of ENSO has increased during the ... -
Nonstationarity in the NAO–Gulf Stream SST Front Interaction
Paolini, Luca Famooss; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bellucci, Alessio; Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Ruggieri, Paolo; Patrizio, Casey R.; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2024)The interaction between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the latitudinal shifts of the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature front (GSF) has been the subject of extensive investigations. There are indications of ...