• Amplification of synoptic to annual variability of West African summer monsoon rainfall under global warming 

      Akinsanola, Akintomide Afolayan; Zhou, Wen; Zhou, Tianjun; Keenlyside, Noel (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      Increased knowledge of future changes in rainfall variability is needed to reduce vulnerability to potential impacts of global warming, especially in highly vulnerable regions like West Africa. While changes in mean and ...
    • Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review 

      Gao, Yongqi; Sun, Jianqi; Li, Fei; He, Shengping; Sandven, Stein; Yan, Qing; Zhang, Zhongshi; Lohmann, Katja; Keenlyside, Noel; Furevik, Tore; Suo, Lingling (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2014-11-28)
      The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades, including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the ...
    • The Arctic sea ice extent change connected to Pacific decadal variability 

      Yang, Xiao-Ying; Wang, Guihua; Keenlyside, Noel (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      After an unprecedented retreat, the total Arctic sea ice cover for the post-2007 period is characterized by low extent and a remarkable increase in annual cycle amplitude. We have identified the leading role of spring ...
    • An Atlantic-driven rapid circulation change in the North Pacific Ocean during the late 1990s 

      Wu, Chau-Ron; Lin, Yong-Fu; Wang, You-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Yu, Jin-Yi (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019-10-08)
      Interbasin interactions have been increasingly emphasized in recent years due to their roles in shaping climate trends and the global warming hiatus in the northern hemisphere. The profound influence from the North Atlantic ...
    • Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. 

      Årthun, Marius; Bogstad, Bjarte; Daewel, Ute; Keenlyside, Noel; Sandø, Anne Britt; Schrum, Corinna; Ottersen, Geir (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2018-10-24)
      Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is ...
    • Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from? 

      Mohino, Elsa; Keenlyside, Noel; Pohlmann, Holger (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2016-12)
      Previous works suggest decadal predictions of Sahel rainfall could be skillful. However, the sources of such skill are still under debate. In addition, previous results are based on short validation periods (i.e. less than ...
    • Dynamically combining climate models to "supermodel" the tropical Pacific 

      Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2016-01)
      We construct an interactive ensemble of two different climate models to improve simulation of key aspects of tropical Pacific climate. Our so-called supermodel is based on two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) ...
    • Eastern boundary circulation and hydrography off Angola. Building Angolan oceanographic capacities 

      Tchipalanga, Pedro C.M.; Dengler, Marcus; Brandt, Peter; Kopte, Robert; Macuéria, Marisa; Coelho, Paulo; Ostrowski, Marek; Keenlyside, Noel (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2018-09-06)
      The eastern boundary region off Angola encompasses a highly productive ecosystem important for the food security of the coastal population. The fish-stock distribution, however, undergoes large variability on intraseasonal, ...
    • An Equatorial–Extratropical Dipole Structure of the Atlantic Niño 

      Nnamchi, Hyacinth C; Li, Jianping; Kucharski, Fred; Kang, In-Sik; Keenlyside, Noel; Chang, Ping; Farneti, Riccardo (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2016)
      Equatorial Atlantic variability is dominated by the Atlantic Niño peaking during the boreal summer. Studies have shown robust links of the Atlantic Niño to fluctuations of the St. Helena subtropical anticyclone and Benguela ...
    • Factors affecting extreme rainfall events in the South Pacific 

      Pariyar, Sunil Kumar; Keenlyside, Noel; Sorteberg, Asgeir; Spengler, Thomas; Bhatt, Bhuwan Chandra; Ogawa, Fumiaki (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      Extreme rainfall events in the South Pacific are widespread and affected by various factors on different time scales. We use daily rainfall data from 20 stations over the South Pacific to investigate the characteristics ...
    • Has a warm North Atlantic contributed to recent European cold winters? 

      Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2014-06-02)
      The rise of global surface temperature waned during the last decade, despite increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The temperature changes were most pronounced over northern hemisphere land masses during winter (Cohen ...
    • Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas 

      Köenigk, Torben; Gao, Yongqi; Gastineau, Guillaume; Keenlyside, Noel; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Orsolini, Yvan; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Suo, Lingling; Tian, Tian; Wang, Tao; Wettstein, Justin; Yang, Shuting (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2018-07-30)
      Coordinated numerical ensemble experiments with six different state-of-the-art atmosphere models have been used in order to evaluate the respective impact of the observed Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) ...
    • The impact of mean state errors on equatorial Atlantic interannual variability in a climate model 

      Ding, Hui; Keenlyside, Noel; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Wahl, Sebastian (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2015-02-23)
      Observations show that the Equatorial Atlantic Zonal Mode (ZM) obeys similar physics to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): positive Bjerknes and delayed negative feedbacks. This implies the ZM may be predictable on ...
    • Impact of ocean and sea ice initialisation on seasonal prediction skill in the Arctic 

      Kimmritz, Madlen; Counillon, Francois; Smedsrud, Lars H.; Bethke, Ingo; Keenlyside, Noel; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Wang, Yiguo (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)
      There is a growing demand for skillful prediction systems in the Arctic. Using the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) that combines the fully-coupled Norwegian Earth System Model and the Ensemble Kalman filter, ...
    • Impact of Snow Initialization in Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Winter Forecasts With the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model 

      Li, Fei; Orsolini, Yvan; Keenlyside, Noel; Shen, Mao-Lin; Counillon, Francois; Wang, Yiguo (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)
      Snow initialization has been previously investigated as a potential source of predictability atthe subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) timescale in winter and spring, through its local radiative,thermodynamical, and hydrological ...
    • Improving weather and climate predictions by training of supermodels 

      Schevenhoven, Francine Janneke; Selten, Frank; Carrassi, Alberto; Keenlyside, Noel (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019-11-28)
      Recent studies demonstrate that weather and climate predictions potentially improve by dynamically combining different models into a so-called “supermodel”. Here, we focus on the weighted supermodel – the supermodel's time ...
    • Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses 

      Wohland, Jan; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Witthaut, Dirk; Keenlyside, Noel (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)
      Reanalysis data underpin much research in atmospheric and related sciences. While most reanalysis only cover the last couple of decades, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (20CR) and European Centre for ...
    • Key Role of the Ocean Western Boundary currents in shaping the Northern Hemisphere climate 

      Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Nakamura, Hisashi; Keenlyside, Noel; Lubis, Sandro W.; Matthes, Katja (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)
      The individual impact of North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Western Boundary Currents (OWBCs) on the tropospheric circulation has recently been studied in depth. However, their simultaneous role in shaping the hemisphere-scale ...
    • The Madden-Julian Oscillation in a warmer world 

      Chang, Chiung-Wen June; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Huang-Hsiung, Hsu; Keenlyside, Noel; Tsuang, Ben-Jei (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2015-07)
      Global warming's impact on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is assessed using one of the few models capable in reproducing its key features. In a warmer climate predicted for the end of the century, the MJO increases ...
    • Marine-based multiproxy reconstruction of Atlantic multidecadal variability 

      Svendsen, Lea; Hetzinger, Steffen; Keenlyside, Noel; Gao, Yongqi (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2014-02-28)
      Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is known to impact climate globally, and knowledge about the persistence of AMV is important for understanding past and future climate variability, as well as modeling and assessing ...