• Current models underestimate future irrigated areas 

      Saltelli, Andrea; Puy, Arnald; Lo Piano, Samuele (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      Predictions of global irrigated areas are widely used to guide strategies that aim to secure environmental welfare and manage climate change. Here we show that these predictions, which range between 240 and 450 million ...
    • The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support 

      Razavi, Saman; Jakeman, Anthony; Saltelli, Andrea; Prieur, Clémentine; Iooss, Bertrand; Borgonovo, Emanuele; Plischke, Elmar; Lo Piano, Samuele; Iwanaga, Takuya; Becker, William; Tarantola, Stefano; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Jakeman, John; Gupta, Hoshin; Melillo, Nicola; Rabitti, Giovanni; Chabridon, Vincent; Duan, Qingyun; Sun, Xifu; Smith, Stefán; Sheikholeslami, Razi; Hosseini, Nasim; Asadzadeh, Masoud; Puy, Arnald; Kucherenko, Sergei; Maier, Holger R. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Sensitivity analysis (SA) is en route to becoming an integral part of mathematical modeling. The tremendous potential benefits of SA are, however, yet to be fully realized, both for advancing mechanistic and data-driven ...
    • Irrigated areas drive irrigation water withdrawals 

      Maeso, Arnald Puy; Borgonovo, Emanuele; Lo Piano, Samuele; Levin, Simon A.; Saltelli, Andrea (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      A sustainable management of global freshwater resources requires reliable estimates of the water demanded by irrigated agriculture. This has been attempted by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) through country ...
    • Is VARS more intuitive and efficient than Sobol’ indices? 

      Maeso, Arnald Puy; Lo Piano, Samuele; Saltelli, Andrea (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS) has been proposed by Razavi and Gupta as a new comprehensive framework in sensitivity analysis. According to these authors, VARS provides a more intuitive notion of ...
    • Quantitative Storytelling in the Making of a Composite Indicator 

      Kuc‑Czarnecka, Marta; Lo Piano, Samuele; Saltelli, Andrea (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      The reasons for and against composite indicators are briefly reviewed, as well as the available theories for their construction. After noting the strong normative dimension of these measures—which ultimately aim to ‘tell ...
    • A sensitivity analysis of the PAWN sensitivity index 

      Puy, Arnald; Lo Piano, Samuele; Saltelli, Andrea (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      The PAWN index is gaining traction among the modelling community as a sensitivity measure. However, the robustness to its design parameters has not yet been scrutinized: the size (𝑁) and sampling (𝜀) of the model output, ...
    • Silver as a Constraint for a Large-Scale Development of Solar Photovoltaics? Scenario-Making to the Year 2050 Supported by Expert Engagement and Global Sensitivity Analysis 

      Lo Piano, Samuele; Saltelli, Andrea; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2019-06-14)
      In this study we assess whether availability of silver could constrain a large-scale deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV). While silver-paste use in photovoltaics cell metallization is becoming more efficient, solar ...