• Basin Interactions and predictability 

      Keenlyside, Noel; Kosaka, Yu; Vigaud, Nicholas; Robertson, Andrew; Wang, Yiguo; Dommenget, Dietmar; Luo, Jing-Jia; Matei, Daniela (Chapter, 2020)
    • Estimation of Ocean Biogeochemical Parameters in an Earth System Model Using the Dual One Step Ahead Smoother: A Twin Experiment 

      Singh, Tarkeshwar; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Tjiputra, Jerry; Wang, Yiguo; Gharamti, Mohamad El (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      Ocean biogeochemical (BGC) models utilise a large number of poorly-constrained global parameters to mimic unresolved processes and reproduce the observed complex spatio-temporal patterns. Large model errors stem primarily ...
    • Impact of ocean and sea ice initialisation on seasonal prediction skill in the Arctic 

      Kimmritz, Madlen; Counillon, Francois; Smedsrud, Lars H.; Bethke, Ingo; Keenlyside, Noel; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Wang, Yiguo (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)
      There is a growing demand for skillful prediction systems in the Arctic. Using the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) that combines the fully-coupled Norwegian Earth System Model and the Ensemble Kalman filter, ...
    • Impact of Snow Initialization in Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Winter Forecasts With the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model 

      Li, Fei; Orsolini, Yvan; Keenlyside, Noel; Shen, Mao-Lin; Counillon, Francois; Wang, Yiguo (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019)
      Snow initialization has been previously investigated as a potential source of predictability atthe subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) timescale in winter and spring, through its local radiative,thermodynamical, and hydrological ...
    • NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP 

      Bethke, Ingo; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Kimmritz, Madlen; Fransner, Filippa; Samuelsen, Annette; Langehaug, Helene R.; Svendsen, Lea; Chiu, Ping-Gin; Passos, Leilane G.; Bentsen, Mats; Guo, Chuncheng; Gupta, Alok Kumar; Tjiputra, Jerry; Kirkevåg, Alf; Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo; Seland, Øyvind; Vågane, Julie Solsvik; Fan, Yuanchao; Eldevik, Tor (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) ...
    • Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway 

      Langehaug, Helene R.; Ortega, Pablo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Matei, Daniela; Maroon, Elizabeth A.; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Mignot, Juliette; Wang, Yiguo; Swingedouw, Didier; Bethke, Ingo; Yang, Shuting; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Nicoli, D.; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We ...
    • Relating model bias and prediction skill in the equatorial Atlantic 

      Counillon, Francois; Keenlyside, Noel; Toniazzo, Thomas; Koseki, Shunya; Demissie, Teferi Dejene; Bethke, Ingo; Wang, Yiguo (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      We investigate the impact of large climatological biases in the tropical Atlantic on reanalysis and seasonal prediction performance using the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) in a standard and an anomaly coupled ...
    • Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models 

      Gleixner, Stephanie Nikola; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi Dejene; Counillon, Francois; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2017)
      The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June–September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface ...
    • Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF 

      Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois; Keenlyside, Noel; Svendsen, Lea; Gleixner, Stephanie; Kimmritz, Madlen; Dai, Panxi; Gao, Yongqi (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019-07-23)
      This study demonstrates that assimilating SST with an advanced data assimilation method yields prediction skill level with the best state-of-the-art systems. We employ the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM)—a ...
    • WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25 

      Hermanson, Leon; Smith, Doug; Seabrook, Melissa; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne; Lapin, Vladimir; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Merryfield, William J.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Athanasiadis, Panos; Nicoli, Dario; Gualdi, Silvio; Dunstone, Nick; Eade, Rosie; Scaife, Adam; Collier, Mark; O'Kane, Terence; Kitsios, Vassili; Sandery, Paul; Pankatz, Klaus; Früh, Barbara; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Kataoka, Takahito; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Ishii, Masayoshi; Imada, Yukiko; Kruschke, Tim; Koenigk, Torben; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Liping; Delworth, Tom; Yang, Xiaosong; Zeng, Fanrong; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Bethke, Ingo; Lean, Judith; Luterbacher, Jürg; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential ...