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dc.contributor.authorRingkjøb, Hans-Kristian
dc.contributor.authorHaugan, Peter M.
dc.contributor.authorSeljom, Pernille Merethe Sire
dc.contributor.authorLind, Arne
dc.contributor.authorWagner, Fabian
dc.contributor.authorMesfun, Sennai
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-19T11:40:04Z
dc.date.available2021-02-19T11:40:04Z
dc.date.created2020-09-10T09:34:22Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.PublishedEnergy. 2020, 209 .
dc.identifier.issn0360-5442
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2729193
dc.description.abstractIntegration of variable renewables such as solar and wind has grown at an unprecedented pace in Europe over the past two decades. As the share of solar and wind rises, it becomes increasingly important for long-term energy system models to adequately represent their short-term variability. This paper uses a long-term TIMES model of the European power and district heat sectors towards 2050 to explore how stochastic modelling of short-term solar and wind variability as well as different temporal resolutions influence the model performance. Using a stochastic model with 48 time-slices as benchmark, the results show that deterministic models with low temporal resolution give a 15–20% underestimation of annual costs, an overestimation of the contribution of variable renewables (13–15% of total electricity generation) and a lack of system flexibility. The results of the deterministic models converge towards the stochastic solution when the temporal resolution is increased, but even with 2016 time-slices, the need for flexibility is underestimated. In addition, the deterministic model with 2016 time-slices takes 30 times longer to solve than the stochastic model with 48 time-slices. Based on these findings, a stochastic approach is recommended for long-term studies of energy systems with large shares of variable renewable energy sources.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleShort-term solar and wind variability in long-term energy system models - A European case studyen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2020 The Authors.en_US
dc.source.articlenumber118377en_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode2
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.energy.2020.118377
dc.identifier.cristin1828623
dc.source.journalEnergyen_US
dc.source.40209
dc.identifier.citationEnergy. 2020, 209, 118377.en_US
dc.source.volume209en_US


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Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal