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dc.contributor.authorDomeisen, Daniela
dc.contributor.authorButler, Amy
dc.contributor.authorCharlton-Perez, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorAyarzaguena, Blanca
dc.contributor.authorBaldwin, Mark
dc.contributor.authorDunn-Sigouin, Etienne
dc.contributor.authorFurtado, Jason
dc.contributor.authorGarfinkel, Chaim
dc.contributor.authorHitchcock, Peter
dc.contributor.authorKarpechko, Alexey
dc.contributor.authorKim, Hera
dc.contributor.authorKnight, Jeff
dc.contributor.authorLang, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorLim, Eun-Pa
dc.contributor.authorMarshall, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorRoff, Greg
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Chen
dc.contributor.authorSimpson, Isla
dc.contributor.authorSon, Seok-Woo
dc.contributor.authorTaguchi, Masakazu
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-16T12:14:33Z
dc.date.available2021-06-16T12:14:33Z
dc.date.created2020-11-04T15:48:40Z
dc.date.issued2019-11-18
dc.identifier.issn2169-897X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2759774
dc.description.abstractThe stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S predictability within the stratosphere is however still limited. This study evaluates to what extent predictability in the extratropical stratosphere exists in hindcasts of operational prediction systems in the S2S database. The stratosphere is found to exhibit extended predictability as compared to the troposphere. Prediction systems with higher stratospheric skill tend to also exhibit higher skill in the troposphere. The analysis also includes an assessment of the predictability for stratospheric events, including early and midwinter sudden stratospheric warming events, strong vortex events, and extreme heat flux events for the Northern Hemisphere and final warming events for both hemispheres. Strong vortex events and final warming events exhibit higher levels of predictability as compared to sudden stratospheric warming events. In general, skill is limited to the deterministic range of 1 to 2 weeks. High-top prediction systems overall exhibit higher stratospheric prediction skill as compared to their low-top counterparts, pointing to the important role of stratospheric representation in S2S prediction models.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.titleThe Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphereen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2019. American Geophysical Unionen_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextpostprint
cristin.qualitycode2
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030920
dc.identifier.cristin1844988
dc.source.journalJournal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheresen_US
dc.source.pagenumber1-17en_US
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. 2020, 125 (2), 1-17en_US
dc.source.volume125en_US
dc.source.issue2en_US


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