Long-term temporal trends in incidence rate and case fatality of sepsis and COVID-19-related sepsis in Norwegian hospitals, 2008-2021: a nationwide registry study

Abstract

Objectives: To estimate temporal trends in incidence rate (IR) and case fatality during a 14-year period from 2008 to 2021, and to assess possible shifts in these trends during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Setting: All Norwegian hospitals 2008–2021.

Participants: 317 705 patients ≥18 year with a sepsis International Classification of Diseases 10th revision code retrieved from The Norwegian Patient Registry.

Primary and secondary measures: Annual age-standardised IRs with 95% CIs. Poisson regression was used to estimate changes in IRs across time, and logistic regression was used to estimate ORs for in-hospital death.

Results: Among 12 619 803 adult hospitalisations, a total of 317 705 (2.5%) hospitalisations in 222 832 (70.0%) unique patients met the sepsis criteria. The overall age-standardised IR of a first sepsis admission was 246/100 000 (95% CI 245 to 247), whereas the age-standardised IR of all sepsis admissions was 352/100 000 (95% CI 351 to 354). In the period 2009–2019, the annual IR for a first sepsis episode was stable (IR ratio (IRR) per year, 0.999; 95% CI 0.994 to 1.004), whereas for recurrent sepsis the IR increased (annual IRR, 1.048; 95% CI 1.037 to 1.059). During the COVID-19 pandemic, the IRR for a first sepsis was 0.877 (95% CI 0.829 to 0.927) in 2020 and 0.929 (95% CI 0.870 to 0.992) in 2021, and for all sepsis it was 0.870 (95% CI 0.810 to 0.935) in 2020 and 0.908 (95% CI 0.840 to 0.980) in 2021, compared with the previous 11-year period. Case fatality among first sepsis admissions declined in the period 2009–2019 (annual OR 0.954 (95% CI 0.950 to 0.958)), whereas case fatality increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 (OR 1.061 (95% CI 1.001 to 1.124) and in 2021 (OR 1.164 (95% CI 1.098 to 1.233)).

Conclusion: The overall IR of sepsis increased from 2009 to 2019, due to an increasing IR of recurrent sepsis, and indicates that sepsis awareness with updated guidelines and education must continue.