Identification and Participation in the United States: A Panel Matching Analysis of Voter ID Laws’ Effect on State-level Turnout

Abstract

The United States has a long and controversial history with voter suppression. Has voter suppression returned in the form of voter ID laws? My research question is "to what degree do voter ID laws affect turnout in the United States". This topic is crucial as it addresses the broader implications of voter ID laws on democratic participation and equity in voter access. I look at state-level data of voter turnout in the United States from 2000 to 2022, examining presidential and midterm elections. The theoretical framework I use is rational choice institutionalism, which posits that institutions help shape the behavior of actors - which in this case is voters. To answer my research question and test my hypotheses, I use panel matching and two-way fixed effects regression.

The analysis reveals that implementation of any type of voter ID law depresses turnout by somewhere between -2.7 to -4 percent, with no significant difference in depression attributable to the strictness of these laws. I find that the depressing effects of voter ID laws is disproportionately affecting Black people – but only by -0.10 percent more than other racial groups. My findings also include mixed evidence regarding the long-term depressive effects of voter ID laws on turnout. These results suggest that states should reevaluate implementing voter ID laws, or simultaneously introduce measures to mitigate the depressive effects these laws have on voter participation.