Navigating Demographic Transitions: Analyzing Refugee Population Dynamics and Urban Relocation in the Kinn Municipality

Abstract

This thesis explores the demographic challenges and policy responses within Kinn Kommune, focusing on the projected population decline and regional strategies aimed at mitigating outmigration and fostering community integration. Utilizing a System Dynamics model, this study analyzes the interrelationships between local demographic trends, migration patterns, and socio-economic conditions. It provides insights into the efficacy of targeted policy interventions designed to enhance the attractiveness of Kinn Kommune as a viable place for diverse demographic groups, including locals and refugees. The findings highlight the significant impact of housing availability, labor market conditions, and social segregation policies on the demographic stability of the region. Through scenario analysis, the research evaluates how different policy measures can influence these factors to curb population decline and support sustainable community development. The thesis also discusses the complexities of implementing such policies within the municipal framework, emphasizing the need for adaptable and integrated policy approaches to address both current challenges and future opportunities. This work contributes to the broader discourse on regional planning and demographic management, offering valuable perspectives for policymakers and stakeholders in similar urban settings. By delineating the dynamics at play in Kinn Kommune, the study underscores the importance of comprehensive and contextually informed policy solutions to ensure the long-term vitality and desirability of the region.