Enhancing Wind Resource Predictability for Power Generation Based on NORA3 Hindcast Data

Abstract

The rising global energy demand, coupled with the urgent need to fully address climate change, has driven a critical shift from fossil fuels—still accounting for 80% of energy consumption in 2022—to renewable energy sources. Wind energy is among the energy sources that offer a clean and sustainable alternative with the potential to meet future energy needs. Offshore wind power, presents unique challenges requiring a deeper understanding of site-specific conditions and advancements in technology to optimize cost-effective energy generation. This study identifies the most profitable offshore wind farm site out of six sites, by evaluating key criteria such as average wind condition, power production, and layout performance. The analysis incorporates the variability of wind patterns, and the influence on monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual power production for different wind park layouts. Notably, Sleipner emerges as the site with the highest power production potential, while Gullfaks C demonstrates the most consistent output. The study also highlights the importance of site interconnection in mitigating intermittency. Fino1 shows the greatest potential for reducing zero-power production events. By interconnection, the wind parks reduce the zero-power production events from 6.13-9.32% at individual sites to as low as 0.55% through strategic interconnections. Maintenance operations are another critical focus, with northern sites like Heidrun and Draugen facing challenges from high wave heights and developed sea states, while southern sites, particularly Fino1, offer more predictable weather windows due to their distribution. By combining insights on wind climatology, wake effects, site interconnection strategies, and maintenance planning, this thesis provides a comprehensive framework for enhancing the reliability and efficiency of offshore wind energy production, contributing to the global transition toward a sustainable energy future.