Integrating distributive justice in system dynamics models of sustainability transitions

Abstract

Social-ecological-technological transitions for decarbonisation and sustainable development goals can perpetuate or introduce environmental and socio-economic injustices. The just transitions literature provides useful perspectives for assessing transition pathways. This paper explores integrating distributive justice into system dynamics modelling for sustainability transitions. For this purpose, we adapt existing requirements to enable the evaluation of distributive justice in model-based support for climate planning to the specific case of system dynamics modelling. We test the requirements by using a previously developed system dynamics model to (1) gain insights into the application of the requirements and (2) reflect on their further development. Our findings underscore the importance of transparency in model assumptions and results. They suggest exploring the behaviour space of models to account for uncertainty and plurality of stakeholder values. Furthermore, they emphasise the need to discuss the implications of model results and the plurality of stakeholder values to foster deliberation and inclusive decision-making.