Simulated and projected relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and winter Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models

Abstract

Interdecadal change in the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been documented by many studies. This study, utilizing the model outputs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), evaluates the ability of the coupled models in CMIP5 to capture the intensified relationship between the EAWM and winter AO since the 1980s, and further projects the evolution of the EAWM–AO relationship during the 21st century. It is found that the observed evolution of the EAWM–AO relationship can be reproduced well by some coupled models (e.g., GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H, and MPI-ESM-MR). The coupled models’ simulations indicate that the impact of winter AO on the EAWM-related circulation and East Asian winter temperature has strengthened since the 1980s. Such interdecadal change in the EAWM–AO relationship is attributed to the intensified propagation of stationary planetary waves associated with winter AO. Projections under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios suggest that the EAWM–AO relationship is significant before the 2030s and after the early 2070s, and insignificant during the 2060s, but uncertain from the 2030s to the 2050s.