• Current models underestimate future irrigated areas 

      Saltelli, Andrea; Puy, Arnald; Lo Piano, Samuele (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      Predictions of global irrigated areas are widely used to guide strategies that aim to secure environmental welfare and manage climate change. Here we show that these predictions, which range between 240 and 450 million ...
    • The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support 

      Razavi, Saman; Jakeman, Anthony; Saltelli, Andrea; Prieur, Clémentine; Iooss, Bertrand; Borgonovo, Emanuele; Plischke, Elmar; Lo Piano, Samuele; Iwanaga, Takuya; Becker, William; Tarantola, Stefano; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Jakeman, John; Gupta, Hoshin; Melillo, Nicola; Rabitti, Giovanni; Chabridon, Vincent; Duan, Qingyun; Sun, Xifu; Smith, Stefán; Sheikholeslami, Razi; Hosseini, Nasim; Asadzadeh, Masoud; Puy, Arnald; Kucherenko, Sergei; Maier, Holger R. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Sensitivity analysis (SA) is en route to becoming an integral part of mathematical modeling. The tremendous potential benefits of SA are, however, yet to be fully realized, both for advancing mechanistic and data-driven ...
    • A sensitivity analysis of the PAWN sensitivity index 

      Puy, Arnald; Lo Piano, Samuele; Saltelli, Andrea (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      The PAWN index is gaining traction among the modelling community as a sensitivity measure. However, the robustness to its design parameters has not yet been scrutinized: the size (𝑁) and sampling (𝜀) of the model output, ...
    • Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy making 

      Lo Piano, Samuele; Lőrincz, Máté János; Puy, Arnald; Pye, Steve; Saltelli, Andrea; Smith, Stefán Thor; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      This article explores how the modeling of energy systems may lead to an undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We retrospectively exemplify the problem ...
    • What can mathematical modelling contribute to a sociology of quantification? 

      Saltelli, Andrea; Puy, Arnald (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      Sociology of quantification has spent relatively less energies investigating mathematical modelling than it has on other forms of quantification such as statistics, metrics, or algorithms based on artificial intelligence. ...