Costs and dynamics of war: System dynamics approached to maritime disputes in the South China Sea

Abstract

Maritime sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea (SCS) are complex issues of growing concern over regional and global stability. Significant possibility of high resolution conflict as an arms race has been accumulated. It may lead the region to a war in the future. China, as the most powerful nation in the disputes, is expected to be a key player influencing the situation. Several scholars have proposed solutions for China to resolve the disputes by peaceful way. Most of them pointed out the way of cooperation and various advantages of solution without war. This thesis reverses the trend of previous works by making scenarios of potential war in the SCS. System Dynamics methodology is used as a tool of study together with National Power principle as frame of considerations. The result draws paradigms of war in SCS which can be a conclusion for China to avoid potential war in SCS"