How malaria models relate temperature to malaria transmission

Abstract

Background: It is well known that temperature has a major influence on the transmission of malaria parasites to their hosts. However, mathematical models do not always agree about the way in which temperature affects malaria transmission. Methods: In this study, we compared six temperature dependent mortality models for the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto. The evaluation is based on a comparison between the models, and observations from semi-field and laboratory settings. Results: Our results show how different mortality calculations can influence the predicted dynamics of malaria transmission. Conclusions: With global warming a reality, the projected changes in malaria transmission will depend on which mortality model is used to make such predictions.