• The Atlantic inflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge in global climate models (CMIP5) 

      Heuzé, Céline; Årthun, Marius (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019-05-21)
      Oceanic heat transport from the North Atlantic to the Arctic through the Nordic Seas is a key component of the climate system that has to be modelled accurately in order to predict, for example, future Arctic sea ice changes ...
    • Barents Sea ice cover reflects Atlantic inflow 

      Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Smedsrud, Lars Henrik; Skagseth, Øystein (2011)
      The recent Arctic winter sea-ice retreat is most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Using available observations of the Atlantic inflow to the Barents Sea and results from a regional ice-ocean model we assess the role of ...
    • Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. 

      Årthun, Marius; Bogstad, Bjarte; Daewel, Ute; Keenlyside, Noel; Sandø, Anne Britt; Schrum, Corinna; Ottersen, Geir (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2018-10-24)
      Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is ...
    • Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea 

      Årthun, Marius; Ingvaldsen, Randi; Smedsrud, Lars Henrik; Schrum, Corinna (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2011)
      Dense water masses from Arctic shelf seas are an important part of the Arctic thermohaline system. We present previously unpublished observations from shallow banks in the Barents Sea, which reveal large interannual ...
    • Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly 

      Årthun, Marius; Wills, Robert C.J.; Johnson, Helen L.; Chafik, Leon; Langehaug, Helene R. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Decadal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations in the North Atlantic Ocean influence climate over adjacent land areas and are a major source of skill in climate predictions. However, the mechanisms underlying decadal ...
    • Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Anomalies in the Norwegian Sea 

      Asbjørnsen, Helene; Årthun, Marius; Skagseth, Øystein; Eldevik, Tor (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019-04)
      Ocean heat content in the Norwegian Sea exhibits pronounced variability on interannual to decadal time scales. These ocean heat anomalies are known to influence Arctic sea ice extent, marine ecosystems, and continental ...
    • Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming arctic 

      Dörr, Jakob Simon; Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Madonna, Erica (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The Arctic winter sea ice cover is in retreat overlaid by large internal variability. Changes to sea ice are driven by exchange of heat, momentum, and freshwater within and between the ocean and the atmosphere. Using a ...
    • Mechanisms underlying recent Arctic atlantification 

      Asbjørnsen, Helene; Årthun, Marius; Skagseth, Øystein; Eldevik, Tor (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020-06-20)
      Recent warming and reduced sea ice concentrations in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean are the main signatures of ongoing Arctic “Atlantification.” The mechanisms driving the warming trends are nevertheless still ...
    • Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice cover over the last century 

      Smedsrud, Lars Henrik; Muilwijk, Morven; Eldevik, Tor; Årthun, Marius; Brakstad, Ailin; Madonna, Erica; Lauvset, Siv Kari; Spensberger, Clemens; Born, Andreas; Drange, Helge; Jeansson, Emil; Li, Camille; Olsen, Are; Skagseth, Øystein; Slater, Donald; Straneo, Fiammetta; Våge, Kjetil (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Poleward ocean heat transport is a key process in the earth system. We detail and review the northward Atlantic Water (AW) flow, Arctic Ocean heat transport, and heat loss to the atmosphere since 1900 in relation to sea ...
    • On the seasonal signal of the Filchner overflow, Weddell Sea, Antarctica 

      Darelius, Elin Maria K.; Strand, Kjersti Opstad; Østerhus, Svein; Gammelsrød, Tor; Årthun, Marius; Fer, Ilker (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2014)
      The cold ice shelf water (ISW) that formed below the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in the southwestern Weddell Sea, Antarctica, escapes the ice shelf cavity through the Filchner Depression and spills over its sill at a rate of ...
    • Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway 

      Langehaug, Helene R.; Ortega, Pablo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Matei, Daniela; Maroon, Elizabeth A.; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Mignot, Juliette; Wang, Yiguo; Swingedouw, Didier; Bethke, Ingo; Yang, Shuting; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Nicoli, D.; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We ...
    • The Role of Atlantic Heat Transport in Future Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss 

      Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Smedsrud, Lars H. (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2019-05-14)
      During recent decades Arctic sea ice variability and retreat during winter have largely been a result of variable ocean heat transport (OHT). Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble simulation ...
    • The Seasonal and Regional Transition to an Ice-Free Arctic 

      Årthun, Marius; Onarheim, Ingrid H.; Dörr, Jakob; Eldevik, Tor (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The Arctic sea ice cover is currently retreating and will continue its retreat in a warming world. However, the loss of sea ice is neither regionally nor seasonally uniform. Here, we present the first regional and seasonal ...
    • Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance 

      Koul, Vimal; Sguotti, Camilla; Årthun, Marius; Brune, Sebastian; Dusterhus, Andre; Bogstad, Bjarte; Ottersen, Geir; Baehr, Johanna; Schrum, Corinna (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock ...
    • Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover 

      Onarheim, Ingrid Husøy; Eldevik, Tor; Årthun, Marius; Ingvaldsen, Randi; Smedsrud, Lars Henrik (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2015-07-08)
      A main concern of present climate change is the Arctic sea ice cover. In wintertime, its observed variability is largely carried by the Barents Sea. Here we propose and evaluate a simple quantitative and prognostic framework ...
    • Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean 

      Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Viste, Ellen; Drange, Helge; Furevik, Tore; Johnson, Helen L.; Keenlyside, Noel (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2017-06-20)
      It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. It nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere to realize its predictive ...
    • Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability 

      Årthun, Marius; Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm; Eldevik, Tor; Keenlyside, Noel (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2018-04)
      Skillful predictions of continental climate would be of great practical benefit for society and stakeholders. It nevertheless remains fundamentally unresolved to what extent climate is predictable, for what features, at ...
    • Toward an ice-free Barents Sea 

      Onarheim, Ingrid Husøy; Årthun, Marius (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2017)
      Arctic winter sea ice loss is most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Here we combine observations since 1850 with climate model simulations to examine the recent record low winter Barents Sea ice extent. We find that the ...
    • Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model 

      Langehaug, Helene R.; Sandø, Anne Britt; Årthun, Marius; Ilicak, Mehmet (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2018-03-27)
      The growing attention on mechanisms that can provide predictability on interannual-to-decadal time scales, makes it necessary to identify how well climate models represent such mechanisms. In this study we use a high (0.25° ...
    • Variable Nordic Seas Inflow Linked to Shifts in North Atlantic Circulation 

      Asbjørnsen, Helene; Johnson, Helen L.; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The inflow across the Iceland-Scotland Ridge determines the amount of heat supplied to the Nordic Seas from the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA). Consequently, variable inflow properties and volume transport at the ridge ...