• Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections 

      Cheung, Ho-Nam; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Koenigk, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Xu, Zhiqing; Gao, Yongqi; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Qiao, Shaobo; Zhou, Wen (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      We investigate the uncertainty (i.e., inter-model spread) in future projections of the boreal winter climate, based on the forced response of ten models from the CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty in the ...
    • Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP) 

      Smith, Doug M.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Simpson, Isla R.; Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Baehr, Johanna; Bethke, Ingo; Bilge, Tarkan Aslan; Bonnet, Rémy; Boucher, Olivier; Findell, Kirsten L.; Gastineau, Guillaume; Gualdi, Silvio; Hermanson, Leon; Leung, L. Ruby; Mignot, Juliette; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Osprey, Scott; Otterå, Odd Helge; Persad, Geeta G.; Scaife, Adam A.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shiogama, Hideo; Sutton, Rowan T.; Swingedouw, Didier; Yang, Shuting; Zhou, Tianjun; Ziehn, Tilo (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible ...
    • Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change 

      Ogawa, Fumiaki; Keenlyside, Noel; Gao, Yongqi; Koenigk, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Suo, Lingling; Wang, Tao; Gastineau, Guillaume; Nakamura, Tetsu; Cheung, Ho Nam; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Ukita, Jinro; Semenov, Vladimir (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2018)
      Wide disagreement among individual modeling studies has contributed to a debate on the role of recent sea ice loss in the Arctic amplification of global warming and the Siberian wintertime cooling trend. We perform coordinated ...
    • Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas 

      Köenigk, Torben; Gao, Yongqi; Gastineau, Guillaume; Keenlyside, Noel; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Orsolini, Yvan; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Suo, Lingling; Tian, Tian; Wang, Tao; Wettstein, Justin; Yang, Shuting (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2018-07-30)
      Coordinated numerical ensemble experiments with six different state-of-the-art atmosphere models have been used in order to evaluate the respective impact of the observed Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) ...
    • Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre 

      Polkova, Iuliia; Swingedouw, Didier; Hermanson, Leon; Köhl, Armin; Stammer, Detlef; Smith, Doug; Kröger, Jürgen; Bethke, Ingo; Yang, Xiaosong; Zhang, Liping; Nicolì, Dario; Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Pankatz, Klaus; Pohlmann, Holger; Wu, Bo; Bilbao, Roberto; Ortega, Pablo; Yang, Shuting; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Merryfield, William; Kataoka, Takahito; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Imada, Yukiko; Ishii, Masayoshi; Matear, Richard J. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      Due to large northward heat transport, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strongly affects the climate of various regions. Its internal variability has been shown to be predictable decades ahead within ...
    • Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway 

      Langehaug, Helene R.; Ortega, Pablo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Matei, Daniela; Maroon, Elizabeth A.; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Mignot, Juliette; Wang, Yiguo; Swingedouw, Didier; Bethke, Ingo; Yang, Shuting; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Nicoli, D.; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We ...
    • Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts 

      Payne, Mark R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Matei, Daniela; Miesner, Anna K.; Yang, Shuting; Yeager, Stephen G. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet’s changing climate by shifting their distribution. Such shifts can drive international conflicts and are highly problematic for the communities and businesses ...
    • WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25 

      Hermanson, Leon; Smith, Doug; Seabrook, Melissa; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne; Lapin, Vladimir; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Merryfield, William J.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Athanasiadis, Panos; Nicoli, Dario; Gualdi, Silvio; Dunstone, Nick; Eade, Rosie; Scaife, Adam; Collier, Mark; O'Kane, Terence; Kitsios, Vassili; Sandery, Paul; Pankatz, Klaus; Früh, Barbara; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Kataoka, Takahito; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Ishii, Masayoshi; Imada, Yukiko; Kruschke, Tim; Koenigk, Torben; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Liping; Delworth, Tom; Yang, Xiaosong; Zeng, Fanrong; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Bethke, Ingo; Lean, Judith; Luterbacher, Jürg; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential ...