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dc.contributor.authorJohannessen, Ola M.eng
dc.date.accessioned2008-11-04T11:36:13Z
dc.date.available2008-11-04T11:36:13Z
dc.date.issued2008-11-16eng
dc.identifier.citationhttp://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aosl/ch/reader/new_year_article.aspx?year_id=2008&quarter_id=1en
dc.identifier.issn16742834eng
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1956/2840
dc.description.abstractArctic sea ice is a keystone indicator of greenhouse-gas induced global climate change, which is expected to be amplified in the Arctic. Here we directly compare observed variations in arctic sea-ice extent and CO2 since the beginning of the 20th century, identifying a strengthening linkage, such that in recent decades the rate of sea-ice decrease mirrors the increase in CO2, with r ~ –0.95 over the last four decades, thereby indicating that 90 % (r2 ~ 0.90) of the decreasing sea-ice extent is em-pirically “accounted for” by the increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. The author presents an empirical relation between annual sea-ice extent and global atmospheric CO2 concentrations, in which sea-ice reductions are line-arly, inversely proportional to the magnitude of increase of CO2 over the last few decades. This approximates sea-ice changes during the most recent four decades, with a proportionality constant of 0.030 million km2 per ppmv CO2. When applied to future emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this relationship results in substantially faster ice decreases up to 2050 than predicted by IPCC models. However, depar-tures from this projection may arise from non-linear feedback effects and/or temporary natural variations on interannual timescales, such as the record minimum of sea-ice extent observed in September 2007.en
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.publisherInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Scienceseng
dc.relation.ispartofseriesAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Lettersen
dc.relation.ispartofseries1(1) 2008 P. 51-56en
dc.subjectCO2 increaseeng
dc.subjectIce decreaseeng
dc.subjectIce projection to 2050eng
dc.titleDecreasing Arctic Sea Ice Mirrors Increasing CO2 on Decadal Time Scaleeng
dc.typeJournal articleeng
dc.subject.nsiVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400nob


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