Landsfader eller landssviker? En kvantitativ analyse av hvilke faktorer som predikerer grad av storhet blant norske statsministere i perioden 1905-1997
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In the US there are numerous studies on presidential greatness. It started in 1948 when the historian Arthur M. Schlesinger asked 55 of the leading American historians to rate all the presidents, starting from George Washington, on a scale from 1 to 5. The result was published in Life Magazine in 1949 and became heavily debated. Since then there have been undertaken many analyses concerning which factors predict presidential greatness. Years in the presidency, war years and presidential scandals are generally seen as significant predictors on presidential greatness in the US. Which variables predict greatness among 25 prime ministers in Norway between 1905-1997? Such quantitative analyses have never been undertaken, and therefore this study focuses on a wide approach using multiple regression and OLS method. The data are mainly collected from the Norwegian Bureau of Statistics and Norsk samfunnsvitenskapelig datatjenteste. Of the 21 included independent variables, divided into groups of institutional, socioeconomic and biographical factors, months as prime ministers and unemployment were found to be significant variables in predicting greatness. These factors account for 53 percent of the variation in greatness. Months as prime ministers was the most important factor in predicting greatness. By studying the residuals it was revealed that some prime ministers did not fit into the model. Christian Michelsen, who led the country when it came independent from Sweden in 1905, was heavily underpredicted, probably because the respondents emphasized this event when rating him great.