• Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP) 

      Smith, Doug M.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Simpson, Isla R.; Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Baehr, Johanna; Bethke, Ingo; Bilge, Tarkan Aslan; Bonnet, Rémy; Boucher, Olivier; Findell, Kirsten L.; Gastineau, Guillaume; Gualdi, Silvio; Hermanson, Leon; Leung, L. Ruby; Mignot, Juliette; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Osprey, Scott; Otterå, Odd Helge; Persad, Geeta G.; Scaife, Adam A.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shiogama, Hideo; Sutton, Rowan T.; Swingedouw, Didier; Yang, Shuting; Zhou, Tianjun; Ziehn, Tilo (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible ...
    • Mitigating climate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic by increasing model resolution: SST gradients and their relation to blocking and the jet 

      Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Schiemann, Reinhard; Baker, Alexander J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Haarsma, Rein; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Roberts, Chris; Novak, Lenka; Gualdi, Silvio (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      Starting to resolve the oceanic mesoscale in climate models is a step change in model fidelity. This study examines how certain obstinate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic respond to increasing resolution (from 1° ...
    • Pacific circulation response to eastern Arctic sea ice reduction in seasonal forecast simulations 

      Seidenglanz, Anne; Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Ruggieri, Paolo; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Li, Camille; Gualdi, Silvio (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Recent studies point to the sensitivity of mid-latitude winter climate to Arctic sea ice variability. However, there remain contradictory results in terms of character and timing of Northern Hemisphere large-scale circulation ...
    • WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25 

      Hermanson, Leon; Smith, Doug; Seabrook, Melissa; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne; Lapin, Vladimir; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Merryfield, William J.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Athanasiadis, Panos; Nicoli, Dario; Gualdi, Silvio; Dunstone, Nick; Eade, Rosie; Scaife, Adam; Collier, Mark; O'Kane, Terence; Kitsios, Vassili; Sandery, Paul; Pankatz, Klaus; Früh, Barbara; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Kataoka, Takahito; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Ishii, Masayoshi; Imada, Yukiko; Kruschke, Tim; Koenigk, Torben; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Liping; Delworth, Tom; Yang, Xiaosong; Zeng, Fanrong; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Bethke, Ingo; Lean, Judith; Luterbacher, Jürg; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential ...