• Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models 

      Shu, Qi; Wang, Qiang; Årthun, Marius; Wang, Shizhu; Song, Zhenya; Zhang, Min; Qiao, Fangli (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      Arctic near-surface air temperature warms much faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. The change of the underlying Arctic Ocean could influence climate through its interaction with sea ...
    • Deconstructing Future AMOC Decline at 26.5°N 

      Asbjørnsen, Helene; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is frequently used to diagnose the state of the North Atlantic circulation, but as an integrated quantity the AMOC strength does not necessarily mirror changes in the ...
    • Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes 

      Dörr, Jakob Simon; Bonan, David; Årthun, Marius; Svendsen, Lea; Wills, Robert C.J. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      The Arctic sea-ice cover is strongly influenced by internal variability on decadal timescales, affecting both short-term trends and the timing of the first ice-free summer. Several mechanisms of variability have been ...
    • Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation 

      Årthun, Marius; Asbjørnsen, Helene; Chafik, Léon; Johnson, Helen L.; Våge, Kjetil (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      The overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas involves the transformation of warm Atlantic waters into cold, dense overflows. These overflow waters return to the North Atlantic and form the headwaters to the deep limb of ...
    • Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study 

      Passos, Leilane G.; Langehaug, Helene R.; Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Bethke, Ingo; Kimmritz, Madlen (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      The skilful prediction of climatic conditions on a forecast horizon of months to decades into the future remains a main scientific challenge of large societal benefit. Here we assess the hindcast skill of the Norwegian ...
    • Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly 

      Årthun, Marius; Wills, Robert C.J.; Johnson, Helen L.; Chafik, Leon; Langehaug, Helene R. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Decadal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations in the North Atlantic Ocean influence climate over adjacent land areas and are a major source of skill in climate predictions. However, the mechanisms underlying decadal ...
    • Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming arctic 

      Dörr, Jakob Simon; Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Madonna, Erica (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The Arctic winter sea ice cover is in retreat overlaid by large internal variability. Changes to sea ice are driven by exchange of heat, momentum, and freshwater within and between the ocean and the atmosphere. Using a ...
    • Mechanisms underlying recent Arctic atlantification 

      Asbjørnsen, Helene; Årthun, Marius; Skagseth, Øystein; Eldevik, Tor (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020-06-20)
      Recent warming and reduced sea ice concentrations in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean are the main signatures of ongoing Arctic “Atlantification.” The mechanisms driving the warming trends are nevertheless still ...
    • Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice cover over the last century 

      Smedsrud, Lars Henrik; Muilwijk, Morven; Eldevik, Tor; Årthun, Marius; Brakstad, Ailin; Madonna, Erica; Lauvset, Siv Kari; Spensberger, Clemens; Born, Andreas; Drange, Helge; Jeansson, Emil; Li, Camille; Olsen, Are; Skagseth, Øystein; Slater, Donald; Straneo, Fiammetta; Våge, Kjetil (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Poleward ocean heat transport is a key process in the earth system. We detail and review the northward Atlantic Water (AW) flow, Arctic Ocean heat transport, and heat loss to the atmosphere since 1900 in relation to sea ...
    • Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance 

      Fransner, Sara Filippa Krusmynta; Olsen, Are; Årthun, Marius; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Tjiputra, Jerry; Samuelsen, Annette; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      The Barents Sea is a highly biologically productive Arctic shelf sea with several commercially important fish stocks. Interannual-to-decadal predictions of its ecosystem would therefore be valuable for marine resource ...
    • Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway 

      Langehaug, Helene R.; Ortega, Pablo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Matei, Daniela; Maroon, Elizabeth A.; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Mignot, Juliette; Wang, Yiguo; Swingedouw, Didier; Bethke, Ingo; Yang, Shuting; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Nicoli, D.; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We ...
    • Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea 

      Rieke, Ole; Årthun, Marius; Dörr, Jakob Simon (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, the anthropogenic signal of the sea ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of ...
    • The Seasonal and Regional Transition to an Ice-Free Arctic 

      Årthun, Marius; Onarheim, Ingrid H.; Dörr, Jakob; Eldevik, Tor (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The Arctic sea ice cover is currently retreating and will continue its retreat in a warming world. However, the loss of sea ice is neither regionally nor seasonally uniform. Here, we present the first regional and seasonal ...
    • Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance 

      Koul, Vimal; Sguotti, Camilla; Årthun, Marius; Brune, Sebastian; Dusterhus, Andre; Bogstad, Bjarte; Ottersen, Geir; Baehr, Johanna; Schrum, Corinna (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock ...
    • Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change 

      Efstathiou, Evangelia; Eldevik, Tor; Årthun, Marius; Lind, Sigrid (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      Recent Arctic winter sea ice loss has been most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Here we explore the spatial structure of Barents Sea ice change as observed over the last 40 years. The dominant mode of winter sea ice ...
    • Surface-Forced Variability in the Nordic Seas Overturning Circulation and Overflows 

      Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      Water mass transformation in the Nordic Seas and the associated overflow of dense waters across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR) acts to maintain the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Here, ...
    • Variable Nordic Seas Inflow Linked to Shifts in North Atlantic Circulation 

      Asbjørnsen, Helene; Johnson, Helen L.; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The inflow across the Iceland-Scotland Ridge determines the amount of heat supplied to the Nordic Seas from the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA). Consequently, variable inflow properties and volume transport at the ridge ...