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dc.contributor.authorLe Quéré, Corinne
dc.contributor.authorMoriarty, Roisin
dc.contributor.authorAndrew, Robbie
dc.contributor.authorCanadell, Josep G.
dc.contributor.authorSitch, Stephen
dc.contributor.authorKorsbakken, Jan Ivar
dc.contributor.authorFriedlingstein, Pierre
dc.contributor.authorPeters, Glen Philip
dc.contributor.authorAndres, Robert J.
dc.contributor.authorBoden, Thomas A.
dc.contributor.authorHoughton, Richard A.
dc.contributor.authorHouse, Joanna I.
dc.contributor.authorKeeling, Ralph F.
dc.contributor.authorTans, Pieter
dc.contributor.authorArneth, Almut
dc.contributor.authorBakker, Dorothée C.E.
dc.contributor.authorBarbero, Leticia
dc.contributor.authorBopp, Laurent
dc.contributor.authorChang, Joseph
dc.contributor.authorChevallier, Frédéric
dc.contributor.authorChini, Louise P.
dc.contributor.authorCiais, Philippe
dc.contributor.authorFader, Marianela
dc.contributor.authorFeely, Richard A.
dc.contributor.authorGkritzalis, Thanos
dc.contributor.authorHarris, Ian
dc.contributor.authorHauck, Judith
dc.contributor.authorIlyina, Tatiana
dc.contributor.authorJain, Atul K.
dc.contributor.authorKato, Etsushi
dc.contributor.authorKitidis, Vassilis
dc.contributor.authorGoldewijk, K. Klein
dc.contributor.authorKoven, Charles Dunbar
dc.contributor.authorLandschützer, Peter
dc.contributor.authorLauvset, Siv Kari
dc.contributor.authorLefévre, Nathalie
dc.contributor.authorLenton, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorLima, Ivan D.
dc.contributor.authorMetzl, Nicolas
dc.contributor.authorMillero, Frank
dc.contributor.authorMunro, David R.
dc.contributor.authorMurata, Aki
dc.contributor.authorNabel, Julia E.M.S.
dc.contributor.authorNakaoka, Shinichirou
dc.contributor.authorNojiri, Yukihiro
dc.contributor.authorO'Brien, Kevin
dc.contributor.authorOlsen, Are
dc.contributor.authorOno, Tsuneo
dc.contributor.authorPérez, Fiz Fernández
dc.contributor.authorPfeil, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorPierrot, Denis
dc.contributor.authorPoulter, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorRehder, Gregor
dc.contributor.authorRödenbeck, Christian
dc.contributor.authorSaito, Shu
dc.contributor.authorSchuster, Ute
dc.contributor.authorSchwinger, Jörg
dc.contributor.authorSéférian, Roland
dc.contributor.authorSteinhoff, Tobias
dc.contributor.authorStocker, Benjamin D.
dc.contributor.authorSutton, Adrienne J.
dc.contributor.authorTakahashi, Taro
dc.contributor.authorTilbrook, Bronte
dc.contributor.authorvan der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid Theodora
dc.contributor.authorvan der Werf, Guido R.
dc.contributor.authorvan Heuven, Steven
dc.contributor.authorVandemark, Douglas
dc.contributor.authorViovy, Nicolas
dc.contributor.authorWiltshire, Andy
dc.contributor.authorZaehle, Sönke
dc.contributor.authorZeng, Ning
dc.PublishedEarth System Science Data 2015, 7(2):349-396eng
dc.description.abstractAccurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centeren_US
dc.publisherCopernicus Publicationsen_US
dc.rightsAttribution CC BYeng
dc.titleGlobal Carbon Budget 2015en_US
dc.typePeer reviewed
dc.typeJournal article
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2015 The Authorsen_US
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 229771
dc.relation.projectNotur/NorStore: nn2980k, ns2980k
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 236296

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