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dc.contributor.authorSguotti, Camilla
dc.contributor.authorOtto, Saskia A
dc.contributor.authorFrelat, Romain
dc.contributor.authorLangbehn, Tom
dc.contributor.authorPlambech Ryberg, M
dc.contributor.authorLindegren, Martin
dc.contributor.authorDurant, Joel Marcel
dc.contributor.authorStenseth, Nils Christian
dc.contributor.authorMöllmann, Christian
dc.PublishedSguotti C, Otto SA, Frelat, Langbehn T, Plambech Ryberg, Lindegren M, Durant JM, Stenseth NC, Möllmann C. Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. 2019;286(1898)eng
dc.description.abstractCollapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.en_US
dc.publisherThe Royal Societyen_US
dc.rightsAttribution CC BYeng
dc.subjectcatastrophe theoryeng
dc.subjectstock collapseeng
dc.subjectAtlantic codeng
dc.subjectstochastic cusp modellingeng
dc.subjectpopulation recoveryeng
dc.titleCatastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recoveryen_US
dc.typePeer reviewed
dc.typeJournal article
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2019 The Authorsen_US
dc.source.journalProceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences

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