• Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP) 

      Smith, Doug M.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Simpson, Isla R.; Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Baehr, Johanna; Bethke, Ingo; Bilge, Tarkan Aslan; Bonnet, Rémy; Boucher, Olivier; Findell, Kirsten L.; Gastineau, Guillaume; Gualdi, Silvio; Hermanson, Leon; Leung, L. Ruby; Mignot, Juliette; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Osprey, Scott; Otterå, Odd Helge; Persad, Geeta G.; Scaife, Adam A.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shiogama, Hideo; Sutton, Rowan T.; Swingedouw, Didier; Yang, Shuting; Zhou, Tianjun; Ziehn, Tilo (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible ...
    • Benefit of vertical localization for sea surface temperature assimilation in isopycnal coordinate model 

      Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Barthelemy, Sebastien Jean-Claude; Barth, Alexander (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022-12-15)
      Sea surface temperature (SST) observations are a critical data set for long-term climate reconstruction. However, their assimilation with an ensemble-based data assimilation method can degrade performance in the ocean ...
    • Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre 

      Polkova, Iuliia; Swingedouw, Didier; Hermanson, Leon; Köhl, Armin; Stammer, Detlef; Smith, Doug; Kröger, Jürgen; Bethke, Ingo; Yang, Xiaosong; Zhang, Liping; Nicolì, Dario; Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Pankatz, Klaus; Pohlmann, Holger; Wu, Bo; Bilbao, Roberto; Ortega, Pablo; Yang, Shuting; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Merryfield, William; Kataoka, Takahito; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Imada, Yukiko; Ishii, Masayoshi; Matear, Richard J. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      Due to large northward heat transport, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strongly affects the climate of various regions. Its internal variability has been shown to be predictable decades ahead within ...
    • Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions 

      O'Kane, Terence J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Brookshaw, Anca; Buontempo, Carlo; Carlin, David; Connell, Richenda K.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Dunstone, Nick; Förster, Kristian; Graça, Antonio; Hobday, Alistair J.; Kitsios, Vassili; van der Laan, Larissa; Lockwood, Julia; Merryfield, William J.; Paxian, Andreas; Payne, Mark R.; Reader, M. Catherine; Saville, Geoffrey R.; Smith, Doug; Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan; Caltabiano, Nico; Carman, Jessie; Hawkins, Ed; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Kumar, Arun; Matei, Daniela; Pohlmann, Holger; Power, Scott; Raphael, Marilyn; Sparrow, Michael; Wu, Bo (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)
      Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections ...