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An expanded calibration model for inferring lakewater and air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages in northern Fennoscandia

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dc.contributor.author Olander, Heikki
dc.contributor.author Birks, Harry John Betteley
dc.contributor.author Korhola, Atte
dc.contributor.author Blom, Tom
dc.date.accessioned 2007-12-14T12:10:57Z
dc.date.available 2007-12-14T12:10:57Z
dc.date.issued 1999
dc.identifier.citation The Holocene 1999 9(3): 279-294 en
dc.identifier.issn 0959-6836
dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.1191/095968399677918040
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1956/2506
dc.description.abstract Chironomid-temperature inference models based on an expanded data set of surface-sediment and limnological data from 53 Subarctic lakes in northern Fennoscandia have been developed using eight different numerical techniques, each based on slightly different underlying statistical models or ecological assumptions. The study sites are mostly small, shallow, bathymetrically simple, oligotrophic lakes, with a pH range from 5.0 to 7.8, a total organic carbon range from 2.5 to 12.6 mg l- 1, a mean July lakewater temperature ranging from 6.1 to 15.4°C, and a mean July air temperature ranging from 8.5 to 14.9°C. A series of redundancy analyses (RDA) identified sediment organic content, maximum lake depth, and lakewater temperature as being the most important explanatory variables. Variance partitioning by partial RDAs further suggested that each of these variables accounted for a significant fraction of variance independent from each other. Different cali bration models were assessed on the basis of their statistical performance, with particular reference to prediction errors and the amount of bias along the temperature gradient. Of the eight calibration models, modern analogue techniques, weighted averaging partial least squares, simple weighted averaging with an‘inverse’ deshrinking regression, and linear partial least squares consistently performed best. These methods can all be used to develop transfer functions for surface-water and air July temperatures with a root mean squared error of predic tion (RMSEP) of about 1.5–1.6°C (water temperature) and 0.8–1.1°C (air temperature), as assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. The resulting models do, however, have relatively high maximum biases (up to 3.9°C) in the lowest segments of the air and water temperature gradients, highlighting the need for enlarging and expanding the calibration data set to include lower temperatures. en
dc.language.iso eng en
dc.publisher SAGE en
dc.subject Chironomidae en
dc.subject Subarctic en
dc.subject Ordination techniques en
dc.subject Calibration models en
dc.subject Transfer function en
dc.subject Summer temperature en
dc.subject Palaeoclimate en
dc.subject Holocene en
dc.subject Northern Fennoscandia en
dc.title An expanded calibration model for inferring lakewater and air temperatures from fossil chironomid assemblages in northern Fennoscandia en
dc.type Peer reviewed en
dc.type Journal article en
dc.subject.nsi VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 no


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