Enabling the direct comparison of high-resolution precipitation observations with operational weather prediction model output

Abstract

Precipitation characteristics is expected to change in the future, as an effect of global climate change. High-intensity precipitation will become a more frequent concern in some areas of the world. The rapid changes and small scales of these precipitation events still pose a big challenge for the numerical weather pre- diction (NWP) models. High-resolution comparison of observations and model output could provide us with a more detailed understanding of the precipitation event and how it unfold in the model. In this thesis, I have worked on providing a methodology for directly enabling the comparison of observed high-resolution precipitation with operational weather prediction model output. A detailed dataset was extracted from the operational weather prediction model in Norway at every time step, for a user defined subdomain centered around the observation location. The high-resolution comparison proved to give detailed information about intensity and timing of the precipitation, which in comparison was smoothed out in hourly data. In addition, the model showed a lot of spatial variability. Location proved to be an important factor for which features of the observations was present and which was not. Overall the model performed well during the calmer periods of precipitation, while the high-intensity precipitation proved to be a challenge.