Heat Pump Adoption in Germany: A Model-based Study of the Influences on the Diffusion of Innovation in Space heating

Abstract

Heating accounts for two-thirds of the final energy consumption of private homes in Germany, with gas and oil heating dominating the market at a 65% share. Decarbonizing heating is crucial for achieving climate neutrality, with heat pumps being a key solution: They are energy efficient and powered with electricity. Despite gaining momentum, the adoption of heat pumps remains slow. This thesis aims to assess the various factors influencing heat pump adoption, identify strategies and find leverage points to accelerate the exchange of heating systems using a System Dynamics approach. A computational simulation model has been developed that integrates an innovation diffusion model with feedback on costs and capacity development, as well as external factors such as gas prices. Key insights are that the adoption of heat pumps is limited by the low number of heaters exchanged each year due to their long lifespan and high upfront costs. This limits the accumulation of heat pumps which furthermore influences the probability of others adopting them and “locks in” the system in a state where fossil heaters remain the norm. The model-based identified leverage point to accelerate the process is an increase in gas price.