Modelling Endogenized Human Behavior: A System Dynamics Based Integration of Pro-Environ- mental Intention in Integrated Assessment Modelling

Abstract

This thesis investigates the system dynamic representation of human behavior, i.e. pro-environmental behavior, within Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). The research is grounded in psychological theories, i.e. Theory of Planned Behavior, the Value Belief Norm Theory, and the Protection Motivation Theory. The thesis identifies social norms, personal worldviews, perceptions of threat, personal norms, and perceptions of behavioral control as critical for intention change. A generic system dynamics model is constructed, linking these psychological constructs with IAMs and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The model identifies two main routes for behavior representation: internal feedback (social norms, peer group pressure) and external feedback (environmental perceptions). The model suggests that energy efficiency, media efficiency, instructive reference conditions, education, thought leaders, and campaigns are promising intervention points. The research contributes to ongoing work by the World Trans Team and highlights the importance of endogenizing behavior in models and narratives.