Impact of peak oil and food based biofuel production on long-term food security. A dynamic policy model

Abstract

It would, for the sake of food security, be rational to start an agricultural transition to a system less dependant on fossil fuels in good time before a possible energy crisis. It therefore seems a paradox that policy makers choose to do the opposite; establish an additional link between the food and energy market through subsidization of food based biofuel production, thus putting food security even more at the mercy of energy supply. The dynamic policy model presented in this thesis illustrates how growth in food based biofuel production enhances the link between the energy and food market. An alternative policy example is developed and tested using the model to simulate future scenarios. The model simulations suggest the current policy of supporting food based biofuel, combined with a peak in oil production, could lay the foundation of a future food crisis and that an alternative policy needs to be implemented as quickly as possible; most importantly, before policy makers receive feedback signals in the form of a continuous rising food price trend.