• Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections 

      Cheung, Ho-Nam; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Koenigk, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Xu, Zhiqing; Gao, Yongqi; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Qiao, Shaobo; Zhou, Wen (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      We investigate the uncertainty (i.e., inter-model spread) in future projections of the boreal winter climate, based on the forced response of ten models from the CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty in the ...
    • Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change 

      Ogawa, Fumiaki; Keenlyside, Noel; Gao, Yongqi; Koenigk, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Suo, Lingling; Wang, Tao; Gastineau, Guillaume; Nakamura, Tetsu; Cheung, Ho Nam; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Ukita, Jinro; Semenov, Vladimir (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2018)
      Wide disagreement among individual modeling studies has contributed to a debate on the role of recent sea ice loss in the Arctic amplification of global warming and the Siberian wintertime cooling trend. We perform coordinated ...
    • Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas 

      Köenigk, Torben; Gao, Yongqi; Gastineau, Guillaume; Keenlyside, Noel; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Orsolini, Yvan; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Suo, Lingling; Tian, Tian; Wang, Tao; Wettstein, Justin; Yang, Shuting (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2018-07-30)
      Coordinated numerical ensemble experiments with six different state-of-the-art atmosphere models have been used in order to evaluate the respective impact of the observed Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) ...
    • Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway 

      Langehaug, Helene R.; Ortega, Pablo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Matei, Daniela; Maroon, Elizabeth A.; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Mignot, Juliette; Wang, Yiguo; Swingedouw, Didier; Bethke, Ingo; Yang, Shuting; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Nicoli, D.; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We ...
    • WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update A Prediction for 2021-25 

      Hermanson, Leon; Smith, Doug; Seabrook, Melissa; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne; Lapin, Vladimir; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Merryfield, William J.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Athanasiadis, Panos; Nicoli, Dario; Gualdi, Silvio; Dunstone, Nick; Eade, Rosie; Scaife, Adam; Collier, Mark; O'Kane, Terence; Kitsios, Vassili; Sandery, Paul; Pankatz, Klaus; Früh, Barbara; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Kataoka, Takahito; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Ishii, Masayoshi; Imada, Yukiko; Kruschke, Tim; Koenigk, Torben; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Liping; Delworth, Tom; Yang, Xiaosong; Zeng, Fanrong; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Bethke, Ingo; Lean, Judith; Luterbacher, Jürg; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential ...