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dc.contributor.authorFransner, Filippa
dc.contributor.authorCounillon, Francois
dc.contributor.authorBethke, Ingo
dc.contributor.authorTjiputra, Jerry
dc.contributor.authorSamuelsen, Annette
dc.contributor.authorNummelin, Aleksi
dc.contributor.authorOlsen, Are
dc.description.abstractPredictions of ocean biogeochemistry, such as primary productivity and CO2 uptake, would help to understand the changing marine environment and the global climate. There is an emerging number of studies where initialization of ocean physics has led to successful predictions of ocean biogeochemistry. It is, however, unclear how much these predictions could be improved by also assimilating biogeochemical data to reduce uncertainties of the initial conditions. Further, the mechanisms that lead to biogeochemical predictability are poorly understood. Here we perform a suite of idealized twin experiments with an Earth System Model (ESM) with the aim to (i) investigate the role of biogeochemical tracers' initial conditions on their predictability, and (ii) understand the physical processes that give rise to, or limit, predictability of ocean carbon uptake and export production. Our results suggest that initialization of the biogeochemical state does not significantly improve interannual-to-decadal predictions, which we relate to the strong control ocean physics exerts on the biogeochemical variability on these time scales. The predictability of ocean carbon uptake generally agrees well with the predictability of the mixed layer depth (MLD), suggesting that the predictable signal comes from the exchange of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) with deep-waters. The longest predictability is found in winter in at high latitudes, as for sea surface temperature and salinity, but the predictability of the MLD and carbon exchange is lower as it is more directly influenced by the atmospheric variability, e.g., the wind. The predictability of the annual mean export production is, on the contrary, nearly non-existing at high latitudes, despite the strong predictive skill for annual mean nutrient concentrations in these regions. This is related to the low predictability of the physical state of the summer surface ocean. Due to the shallow mixed layer it is decoupled from the ocean below and therefore strongly influenced by the chaotic atmosphere. Our results show that future studies need to target the predictability of the mixed layer to get a better understanding of the real-world predictability of ocean biogeochemistry.en_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.titleOcean Biogeochemical Predictions—Initialization and Limits of Predictabilityen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.description.versionpublished versionen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright © 2020 Fransner, Counillon, Bethke, Tjiputra, Samuelsen, Nummelin and Olsen.en_US
dc.source.journalFrontiers in Marine Scienceen_US
dc.relation.projectNotur/NorStore: NN1002Ken_US
dc.relation.projectNotur/NorStore: NS1002Ken_US
dc.relation.projectNotur/NorStore: NS9039Ken_US
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 275268en_US
dc.relation.projectNotur/NorStore: NN9039Ken_US
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 276730en_US

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Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal