Using Red List species in designating protection status to forest areas: a case study on the problem of spatio-temporal dynamics

Abstract

Red-listed species are often used as target species in selection of sites for conservation. However, limitations to their use have been pointed out, and here we address the problem of expected high spatio-temporal dynamics of red-listed species. We used species data (vascular plants, bryophytes, macrolichens and polypore fungi) from two inventories 17 years apart to estimate temporal turnover of red-listed and non-red-listed species in two forest areas (147 and 195 ha) and of plots (0.25 ha) within each area. Furthermore, we investigated how turnover of species affected the rank order of plots regarding richness of red-listed species, using two different national Red List issues (1998 and 2015). In both study areas, temporal turnover was substantial, despite minor changes in the overall number of species. At plot level, temporal turnover in red-listed species was higher than in non-red-listed species, but similar to non-red-listed species of the same frequency of occurrence. Adding the effect of changing identities of species red-listed according to the two Red List issues, further increased the estimated spatio-temporal dynamics. Recorded spatio-temporal turnover also resulted in substantial changes in the rank order of plots regarding richness of red-listed species. Using rare red-listed species for site selection may therefore be accompanied by a higher loss of conservation effectiveness over time than for more common species, and particularly at finer scales.