How do oil prices and investments impact the dynamics of firm value?

Abstract

The purpose of this study is twofold: (i) to analyze the impact of investment policy decision on the firm value given the uncertain oil and gas prices and (ii) to propose policies that enhance firm value. The study develops a system dynamics model that integrates the financial and operational activities of oil firms. The simulation results reveal that, when oil and gas prices increase, positive future expectations lead to increased investments and reduced cash flows. Greater volume of investments over the firm's current investment policy decreases its future cash flows and the total firm value over the first 20 years of the simulation period; it increases thereafter. To support higher investments, the firm would issue a higher number of shares, and consequently the market price per share would be lower, and vice versa. The simulation results suggest a relatively lower volume of investments to increase the market price per share.