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dc.contributor.authorSayedi, Sayedeh Sara
dc.contributor.authorAbbott, Benjamin W.
dc.contributor.authorThornton, Brett F.
dc.contributor.authorFrederick, Jennifer M.
dc.contributor.authorVonk, Jorien E.
dc.contributor.authorOverduin, Paul
dc.contributor.authorSchädel, Christina
dc.contributor.authorSchuur, Edward A.G.
dc.contributor.authorBourbonnais, Annie
dc.contributor.authorDemidov, Nikita
dc.contributor.authorGavrilov, Anatoly
dc.contributor.authorHe, Shengping
dc.contributor.authorHugelius, Gustaf
dc.contributor.authorJakobsson, Martin
dc.contributor.authorJones, Miriam C.
dc.contributor.authorJoung, DongJoo
dc.contributor.authorKraev, Gleb
dc.contributor.authorMacdonald, Robie W.
dc.contributor.authorMcGuire, A. David
dc.contributor.authorMu, Cuicui
dc.contributor.authorO'Regan, Matt
dc.contributor.authorSchreiner, Kathryn M.
dc.contributor.authorStranne, Christian
dc.contributor.authorPizhankova, Elena
dc.contributor.authorVasiliev, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorWestermann, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorZarnetske, Jay P.
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Tingjun
dc.contributor.authorGhandehari, Mehran
dc.contributor.authorBaeumler, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorBrown, Brian C.
dc.contributor.authorFrei, Rebecca J.
dc.PublishedEnvironmental Research Letters. 2020, 15:124075 (12), 1-14.
dc.description.abstractThe continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ~560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ~30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.en_US
dc.publisherIOP Publishingen_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.titleSubsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessmenten_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2020 The Author(s).en_US
dc.source.journalEnvironmental Research Lettersen_US
dc.identifier.citationEnvironmental Research Letters. 2020, 15 (12), 124075en_US

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