Population dynamic modeling to further improve the understanding of the impact of the level of the Proportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE) on elephant populations at a Monitoring of Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) site in Kenya.

Abstract

Elephants play an important role in ecosystem function and help maintain suitable habitats for many other species as well as maintain ecosystem health. However, African Elephant populations have declined by 60% over the past 50 years. The causes of increased mortality, aside from natural deaths, are increased illegal killings arising from poaching for ivory as well as human elephant conflict. The Monitoring of Illegal Killing of Elephants programme (MIKE) is specifically focused on determining the pressures on elephant populations and uses PIKE, a measure of the proportion of illegally killed elephants, to report to CITES on changes in poaching pressures. A system dynamics model was developed to test the hypothesis that when PIKE is above a 0.5 threshold the elephant population will be in net decline, or when PIKE is less than a 0.5 threshold the elephant population will be in net increase.